Ricky Dimon
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The NBA finally returns from its all-star break on Thursday, but basketball fans should not forget about the college game. A busy week continues with 4 top-25 teams taking the court: #4 UCLA, #12 Gonzaga, #15 St. Mary’s and #21 Northwestern. UCLA and Northwestern have road tests on their hands in the form of Utah and Illinois, respectively.
Let’s take a look at my 3 best bets for Thursday.
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Wichita State +3 over Memphis (-110)
The Shockers lost the previous meeting with Memphis by 10, but that is a respectable result on the road and it was a 1-point game with 9 minutes remaining. Wichita State is getting a lot of scoring from a lot of different sources. Nobody on the team is averaging more than 14.4 ppg and only 2 guys are averaging in double figures, but over the past 4 games the Shockers have had 4 different scoring leaders and on all 4 occasions that player scored at least 19 points. That includes Kenny Pohto’s 28-point barrage during a double-overtime defeat of SMU last week. Pohto (8.8 ppg) has delivered double-figures in 5 of the last 7 games and in 7 of the last 11.
Northwestern +5.5 over Illinois (-110)
Northwestern is 11-5 in the Big Ten and has won 5 games in a row. Illinois is 9-7 in the Big Ten, 1-2 in its last 3 games and 2-3 in its last 5. So why are the Wildcats getting 5.5 points? Because they are on the road. Illinois is 13-2 inside its own building this season, but keep in mind that this team lost to Indiana by 15 at home and to Penn State by 15 at home. It’s not like the Fighting Illini are invincible in Champaign – especially not against an opponent as hot as Northwestern. The Wildcats’ 5-game surge includes 2 road victories, an upset of #1 Purdue and most recently a 20-point beatdown of Iowa. This is also the Big Ten we are talking about, where games are generally physical and low-scoring. In such a situation, a 5.5-point spread is significant.
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UCLA -7 over Utah (-110)
This is another case of too much stock being put in home-court advantage. UCLA hammered Utah 68-49 inside Pauley Pavilion on January 12 and there is no reason to think there will be as much as a 12-point turnaround just because the Bruins have to go on the road a month later. The bottom line is that Utah probably isn’t playing well enough to treat its crowd to an upset – or even to a competitive contest. The Utes are 5-7 in their last 12 games and this stretch includes a double-digit home loss to Oregon and 78-72 home loss to Stanford. UCLA is 20-2 since starting the season 3-2 and it is in the midst of a 6-game winning streak. The Bruins’ last 9 victories have all come by at least 7 points and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (16.8 ppg) has scored at least 20 points in 4 of the last 5 contests.
Check out all of our college basketball predictions
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