Sam Avellone
The final Wednesday of the college basketball regular season is upon us and the slate does not disappoint. There are multiple high-profile teams in play on Wednesday evening, headlined by 2 ranked matchups in Maryland vs Michigan and Florida vs Alabama. As many as 6 other top-15 teams will be in play on Wednesday, fighting to prevent losses to unranked opponents as the regular season draws to a close. We’ve got a stacked lineup that is perfect for today’s college basketball best bets.
Tuesday’s results weren’t pretty. We managed to win 1 of the 3 best bets thanks to BYU and Iowa State going to overtime, but Villanova and Auburn were disappointing to say the least. Auburn was to be expected considering the line moved against us throughout the day leading up to tip-off. However, we had 2 points of closing-line value on Villanova and still came up empty. Sometimes teams that shoot sub-35% from the three-point line explode and hit 14 of 31 perimeter shots, much like Georgetown did. It happens and we move forward. As it stands, I am 29-18 since January 1 and would love to extend that to 32-18 on Wednesday. Let’s get into our college basketball best bets, and don’t forget to check out our college basketball predictions for action on the rest of the games on Wednesday’s slate.
College basketball Wednesday best bets
Florida Gators team total over 87.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide (-115)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Florida and Alabama meet for the first time this season on Wednesday night and I’m expecting a track meet. Alabama still sits atop the college basketball landscape in adjusted tempo, and they are 5th nationally in average possession length. I don’t think Florida will balk at Alabama’s desire to push the pace, as the Gators are top 70 in adjusted tempo and top 40 in average possession length themselves. In fact, both of these teams are top 6 nationally in adjusted tempo against top 25 opponents since February 1 (Bart Torvik). Florida and Alabama are 1-5 SU combined in those games, and with the added variance of a high-possession game, I was unable to come to a conclusion on the side in this matchup.
However, Florida’s team total stands out as an interesting angle given how soft Alabama’s defense can be at times. The Tide are in the 8th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games, while Florida is in the 99th percentile in offensive rating over that span. Florida has scored at least 87 points in all 5 games against teams who rate in the top 50 of KenPom’s average possession length, and that is a trend that I expect to continue on Wednesday night despite the Gators being on the road. On the other end, Alabama has yielded at least 87 points in 6 of 9 games against top-25 offenses this season. Given the expected pace of play and Alabama’s defensive deficiencies, I like Florida to surpass 90 points on Wednesday night. Playable to 89.
Read our full Florida vs Alabama prediction for this massive ranked matchup on ESPN2
Davidson Wildcats vs Loyola Chicago Ramblers Under 141.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
These teams played at Davidson just a couple of weeks ago and Loyola came away with the 77-69 win. The 146 total points scored surpassed the posted total of 139.5 in that contest, and oddsmakers have adjusted the total for this matchup. However, I disagree with the adjustment. There were 51 total points scored in the final 10 minutes of the first matchup, which is an anomaly when considering the pace at which these teams play. For reference, Davidson is 288th in adjusted tempo while Loyola is outside the top 190 (KenPom). Both teams are around the 40th percentile or worse in their season-long pace metrics as well (CBB Analytics).
Davidson’s offense has been tough to watch lately, and the numbers bear that out. The Wildcats are in the 15th percentile in offensive rating and the 9th percentile in effective field goal percentage over their last 5 games, and back-to-back road games against VCU and Loyola isn’t going to help them break out of that slump. While Loyola isn’t as strong defensively as it used to be, the Ramblers are above average at home – holding opponents to a 46.5% effective field goal percentage in those games. I expect this game to be more of a grind than the first, so give me the Under. Playable to 140.
Tennessee Volunteers -1.5 over Ole Miss Rebels (-115)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
While I identify this as an Ole Miss spot, I have a hard time getting there with the Rebels against this Tennessee squad. The Vols are likely riding high after their buzzer-beating win over Alabama on Saturday, but I don’t expect a hangover from a veteran team with national championship aspirations. The Volunteers have advantages in multiple aspects of this matchup, starting on the defensive end. They have been elite against very good competition over the last month, boasting top-5 marks in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed against top-50 teams since February 1. The Vols are 5-1 in those games.
On the other end of the floor, Tennessee is not as strong. However, the Vols are still above average offensively. They are in the 82nd percentile in offensive rating over their last 5 games and should have an advantage on that end of the floor against an Ole Miss defense that has regressed heavily of late.
The Rebels are in the 1st percentile nationally in defensive rating over their last 5 games, as well as 315th in effective field goal percentage allowed since February 8. The Rebels also are at a disadvantage in the rebounding department against Tennessee, as they lack the size to compete with Felix Okpara and Igor Milicic. That is apparent in their rebounding metrics, as they are dead last in the SEC in offensive rebounding rate and 13th in the conference in opposing offensive rebounding rate. Ole Miss is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog and has covered the spread just once in its last 11 outings. I don’t think the spot (being an unranked home underdog against a top-10 team that just won at the buzzer) is going to fix those ATS struggles or erase their perceived disadvantages against the Vols. Playable to -3.5.
Read our full Tennessee vs Ole Miss prediction for this SEC matchup
