Caleb Wilfinger
March is here and the Pickswise college basketball handicapping team has been in good form in conference play. Championship Week has arrived and with it comes loaded basketball slates, including championship games in the Patriot League, Southland and Big Sky on Wednesday. The Madness is picking up, so let’s keep the momentum going!
While the college hoops market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage. Let’s take a look at my college basketball best bets for the Wednesday slate, and make sure you also check out our NCAAB picks for the biggest games of the day.
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Vanderbilt Commodores -1.5 over Texas Longhorns (-118)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Vanderbilt -2.5 (-110).
The SEC is in the midst of an all-time season, and its conference tournament gets underway on Wednesday with a showdown between the Texas Longhorns and Vanderbilt Commodores. These are a pair of programs that are heading in completely different directions at the moment, and while the spot would traditionally suggest that Texas is the right side in this game, I find it really hard to trust the Longhorns in a game of this magnitude. Texas is likely playing this game with their NCAA Tournament hopes on the line, and backing a Rodney Terry coached team in this situation has not proven to be a profitable endeavor during his Texas tenure.
The Longhorns have just 2 wins over their last 9 games, which includes a loss to Vanderbilt, a game that saw freshman phenom Tre Johnson shoot poorly from the field. Johnson is a tremendous talent, but the issue for Texas is the offense typically goes how he goes; as we saw last Saturday against Oklahoma. However, the Longhorns have still managed to lose plenty of games to NCAA Tournament-caliber teams even if Johnson explodes for 25 or 30+ points (see: a recent overtime loss to Arkansas). With that in mind, it’s hard not to back Vanderbilt in its backyard, where the Commodores are being priced at a bit of a discount seeing as this is neutral site game in name only.
Vanderbilt’s offense is a top 20 unit in adjusted efficiency and the eye test certainly supports that, with the Commodores putting together impressive shooting performances against Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri in recent weeks. Texas’ defense is pretty average by Power 4 standards (and even a bit below average in the SEC), so I don’t expect the Longhorns to offer much resistance to Jason Edwards, AJ Hoggard and company in this matchup. If the Commodores are able to turn Texas over and get out and run a bit in transition, they should be able to control the tempo and dictate the pace of the game. Texas’ offense is very inconsistent in the halfcourt as well, so the fairly average Vanderbilt defense shouldn’t be at risk of allowing a massive offensive explosion in this one either. I’ll lay the short number with the favorite in a game where market sentiment might be with Texas.
Read our full Texas Longhorns vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction
Kansas State Wildcats +6.5 over Baylor Bears
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas State +5.5
For one of my two best bets in the Big 12 tournament on Wednesday, I’ll be targeting the Kansas State Wildcats catching over 6 points against the Baylor Bears in Kansas City. The Bears entered the year with plenty of hype and preseason expectations, but it’s fair to say that Scott Drew’s team has been a massive disappointment to this point. Injuries have certainly been a factor earlier this season, but inconsistent play has been just as prevalent throughout the campaign. In fact, Baylor has hardly looked like an NCAA Tournament level team since February 1 (5-6 record, 42nd at Barttorvik).
Conversely, while Kansas State has certainly been a tough team to figure out this season, the Wildcats have been playing at a top 30 level over the past 6 weeks, racking up a number of impressive victories in that span. Jerome Tang’s team is not short on talent, and we have seen the Wildcats look like a team worthy of a postseason berth at their best in wins over Arizona, Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia in conference play. The Wildcats have been getting it done with defense, sitting inside the top 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency at Barttorvik since January 25, while also holding opponents to just 26% shooting from beyond the arc in that span. Baylor’s offense is not one that is going to challenge that, with the Bears sitting outside the top 200 in 2-point and 3-point percentage since January 15.
On the other side of the ball, the Kansas State offense has been inconsistent, but Baylor struggles mightily on the defensive glass (289th per Barttorvik), so the Wildcats should be able to generate some second-chance points to boost their offense. Ultimately, Baylor hasn’t registered a Quad 1 win since February 1, and it took a massive collapse from Kansas in that game for the Bears to pull off that victory in Waco. This is a game that should come down to the final few possessions, and I think the Wildcats are live on the money line. With that in mind, I’ll certainly take the points in Kansas City.
Don’t miss our full Kansas State vs Baylor predictions
Kansas Jayhawks -9.5 over UCF Golden Knights (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas -10.5
The Big 12 tournament is rolling into its second day, and following their victory over Utah on Tuesday, the UCF Golden Knights are set to take on the Kansas Jayhawks on Wednesday. Kansas’ issues this season have been well documented, but the Jayhawks did put forth an inspired effort to close the season last Saturday against Arizona in a much-needed victory over the Wildcats. This is something of home game for Kansas given that the tournament is being played in Kansas City, and with this now being a new season, I’m of the opinion that the Jayhawks should be able to reset and put a lot of their regular-season woes out of their mind for the next few games. It certainly helps matters that Bill Self’s team gets a pretty favorable matchup against UCF, a team that Kansas will certainly take seriously considering the Knights gave the Jayhawks a scare at Allen Fieldhouse back on January 28.
The first two meetings between these teams can be instructive for my handicap on Wednesday, particularly the first meeting, in which Kansas drubbed the Knights 99-48 in Orlando. The key for the Kansas defense in that game compared to the following meeting was the Jayhawks were able to force UCF into taking a lot of tough shots behind the arc, which is not the strong suit of the Knights offense (203rd in 3-point percentage and 129th in 3-point rate). The Knights are a much more adept 2-point offense, but that plays into Kansas’ hands — as the Jayhawks have been excellent at defending inside the arc (12th in 2-point percentage allowed) with the length and shot-blocking prowess of Flory Bidunga and KJ Adams in the paint.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas is an efficient 2-point offense with its consistent motion and big-to-big passing out of the post. This should give the UCF defense plenty of issues, as we saw with Kansas registering 90+ point totals in both meetings earlier this season. If the Kansas guards can generate any sort of success on the perimeter, it should be another very good day at the office for the Jayhawks offense in a friendly environment. Ultimately, I’ll lay the chalk with the Jayhawks in a de-facto home game to kick off their Big 12 tournament.
Read our full UCF Knights vs Kansas Jayhawks prediction
