Sam Avellone
Like Tuesday, Wednesday’s college basketball slate doesn’t have the most marquee matchups, but there still are plenty of great games on tap. The lone ranked matchup of the night takes place in College Park, Maryland, where Michigan State’s winning streak will be put to the test. Elsewhere, Auburn and St. John’s hope to add some cushion to their leads atop their respective conferences, while Arizona, Kentucky and Texas A&M aim to rebound following their losses over the weekend. Yesterday’s 2-1 result pushes my best bet record to 25-13 since January 1st – a win rate of nearly 66%. Let’s keep the winning ways going on Wednesday! Here are my 3 college basketball best bets of the night, and don’t forget to check out our NCAAB predictions for more analysis on Wednesday’s big matchups.
College basketball Wednesday best bets
Maryland Terrapins -3.5 over Michigan State Spartans (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Michigan State travels to College Park having won 3 consecutive games against teams that rank in KenPom’s top 25, and the Spartans now sit atop the Big Ten standings via tiebreaker thanks to their win at Michigan on Friday. However, I don’t love this spot for Sparty, as they have had a grueling stretch of games dating back to the first of the month. This will be their 4th game since February 15 and their 3rd road game in that span.
Meanwhile, Maryland has faced a much easier schedule in February and benefits from an extra day of rest coming into this game. This will be Maryland’s 3rd contest since February 16, as well as the 3rd consecutive home game for the Terrapins – who have been a machine on their home floor. In fact, the Terps have covered in 4 consecutive home games, all of which had bigger spreads than this one.
Michigan State’s last 3 opponents have made just 21 of 78 combined three-point attempts, which is a trend I do not expect to continue on Wednesday night. Maryland has been on a roll from the perimeter of late, connecting on at least 37% of its three-point attempts in 4 consecutive games. While they don’t shoot a ton of threes, the Terps lead the Big Ten in three-point percentage and should be able to test a Michigan State defense that is 253rd nationally in three-point rate allowed. In the paint, Derik Queen and Julian Reese should find some success in post-up situations and on the glass with their physicality and endless motors. Look for the Terps to score from all levels in this one, and don’t be surprised if Sparty struggles with turnovers given their potential fatigue against one of the better pressure defenses in the Big Ten. Playable to -4.5.
Read our full Michigan State vs Maryland prediction
Auburn Tigers -12.5 over Ole Miss Rebels (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Ole Miss hopes to exact revenge on Auburn for a 10-point home loss earlier this season, but I don’t think that’s going to happen in the Jungle on Wednesday night despite Auburn’s recent struggles against the spread. The Tigers have failed to cover in 3 straight home games, mostly because they didn’t shoot well from the perimeter in any of those games. In fact, they made just 17 of their 68 long-distance attempts in that 3-game span, which is well below their season average. Playing against a defense they have already shredded this season, in addition to playing at home for the 3rd consecutive time, I like the Tigers to get back on track offensively in this matchup.
The Rebels have regressed defensively in recent weeks, as they are in the 30th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics) and 265th in opposing effective field goal percentage since February 1 (Bart Torvik). Furthermore, they are 312th in three-point rate allowed, which means Auburn should be able to fire away from distance all night. Playable to -14.
Read our full full Ole Miss vs Auburn prediction for this massive SEC showdown!
St. John’s Red Storm -7.5 over Butler Bulldogs (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Laying 3 possessions worth of points on the road in conference isn’t ideal, but I have a hard time not backing the Red Storm on Wednesday night. These teams played once already this year and St. John’s beat Butler 70-62 despite making just 1 of its 21 three-point attempts and losing the rebounding battle. Butler turned the ball over 21 times in that game, which is entirely repeatable given St. John’s Big East-leading forced turnover rate. In fact, the Johnnies have the 2nd-most efficient defense in the country per KenPom, and Butler has simply been overmatched against its best defensive opponents this year.
For reference, the Bulldogs are 0-5 against KenPom top-30 defenses, losing by an average of 11.8 points per game. They have also failed to cover in their last 2 games as home underdogs and are just 2-5 ATS when catching less than 10 points. Meanwhile, St. John’s is 5-2-1 ATS on the road against Big East teams this season. Expect those trends to continue on Wednesday night despite Butler’s recent stretch of 4 wins in 5 games. This St. John’s defense is a massive step up in class compared to the opponents Butler has played this month. Playable to -9.5.
Find out the rest of our college basketball picks for tonight’s action
