Sam Avellone
Wednesday’s college basketball slate isn’t jam-packed with marquee matchups, but there are still a handful of interesting games on the card – headlined by the top-15 battle between Alabama and Missouri. Staying in the SEC, Kentucky seeks revenge on Vanderbilt, and Auburn looks to avoid its 2nd consecutive home loss against Arkansas after a massive win at Alabama. Elsewhere, St. John’s heads to DePaul after a gritty win over Creighton, Belmont looks to snap Northern Iowa’s winning streak, Arkansas State and South Alabama meet again while in a 4-way tie atop the Sun Belt and New Mexico looks to extend its winning streak to 9.
Unfortunately, our luck ran out on Tuesday, as we went 0-3 on our college basketball best bets for the first time this year. It was probably overdue, but we are still 21-8 in 2025, so it’s nothing to hang our heads over. To ease the pain and get us back on track, here are 3 picks that I like the most on Wednesday’s card. Looking for more bets? Check out the Pickswise college basketball picks for our staff’s thoughts on the biggest games of the night.
College basketball Wednesday best bets
Arkansas State Red Wolves -8 over South Alabama Jaguars (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is a pretty interesting spot for Arkansas State, which has lost 3 of its last 4 including suffering its first home loss of the season on Saturday. The Red Wolves played the Jaguars in early January and lost 76-62. It was the biggest loss of the season for Arkansas State and just 1 of 3 times that the Red Wolves failed to reach 65 points. They took 49 threes in that game and made just 12 of them. They also allowed the Jaguars to have one of their best offensive performances of the season, as South Alabama made 50% of its three-point attempts and almost 64% of its two-point attempts. However, Arkansas State was without Kobe Julien in that game, who is not only the team’s 2nd-leading scorer but one of its better rebounders and defenders. He will be back for this game.
We should expect maximum effort from Arkansas State on Wednesday night, as the Red Wolves now find themselves in a 4-way tie (including South Alabama) at the top of the Sun Belt standings. I like them to bounce back in a big way here, not only because of the loss to the Jaguars earlier this season but because of their home loss to Troy on Saturday. The Red Wolves have the most efficient offense in the league while leading the conference in turnover rate, and their perimeter defense is also one of the best in the Sun Belt – which leads me to believe that there is plenty of expected regression coming for the Jaguars in this one. For reference, the Jaguars average 31.9% from the three-point line in the Sun Belt, and they come into this game off back-to-back overtime wins. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is 5-1 ATS at home since the turn of the calendar year. Playable to -10.
Get set for tonight’s games on ESPN with our NC State vs North Carolina best bet and our Arkansas vs Auburn prediction
North Dakota State Bison vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits Over 156.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
These teams met in Fargo in late January and South Dakota State came away with a 10-point win. However, the game closed with a total of 157 and there were only 134 total points scored. Despite the poor offensive performance, oddsmakers did not adjust the total at all for the rematch. At the time of writing, the total is right around that same number of 157, which is a telling sign that oddsmakers expect points in this game – and I agree with them.
The Bison and the Jackrabbits have 2 of the better three-point offenses in the country, yet they shot a combined 16/59 from range in the first meeting. You can expect to see a better performance from both teams on Wednesday night, as NDSU and SDSU are in the 95th percentile or better in offensive rating over their last 5 games per CBB Analytics. Moreover, the Bison and the Jackrabbits are in the 100th percentile in three-point percentage and true shooting percentage in that span. On the other end of the floor, I question how much defensive intensity there will be, as both teams reside in the 6th percentile or worse in defensive rating over their last 5 games. South Dakota State has given up at least 85 points in 3 consecutive games, while North Dakota State has allowed at least 84 points in 3 straight. Two of those games were played into overtime, but Oral Roberts had 81 points at the end of regulation last Thursday and Denver had 76 points at the end of regulation on Saturday.
Despite a slower-than-average pace of play, North Dakota State has proven that it can play in high-scoring games. The Bison are outside the top 350 in tempo against top-150 opponents per Bart Torvik, but their offensive efficiency ranks in the top 60 in those games while their defensive efficiency is outside the top 290. In other words, most possessions on either end of the floor end with points, which is very good for our Over. For what it’s worth, the Over is 4-2 in South Dakota State’s home games and 4-2 in North Dakota State’s road games since January 1. Look for a much better shooting performance from both teams in this one. Playable to 158.5.
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Washington State Cougars +13 over Gonzaga Bulldogs (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Washington State and Gonzaga are going in completely opposite directions right now. The Cougars have lost 6 of their last 7, while Gonzaga has won 6 of its last 7. These teams played once already this season in Spokane and Gonzaga won comfortably, but there were some positives to take away from Washington State’s performance. The Cougars made more than 60% of their two-point attempts and 38% of their shots from distance without the help of Isaiah Watts, who missed the game with an injury. Watts averages 12 points per game and shoots 38% from the perimeter, so having him back on the floor should boost Washington State’s offense even more.
This is a lookahead spot for the Zags, who play at home in a revenge spot against conference-leading Saint Mary’s on Saturday. Furthermore, the Zags haven’t performed as well on the road as they have at home, shooting just 31% from distance while allowing about 8 more points per game on the defensive end. Washington State should be able to capitalize on those deficiencies. The Cougars have a good perimeter offense that can take advantage of Gonzaga’s defense – a unit that is 272nd in three-point rate allowed this season. In fact, this Washington State offense is one of the best in the country in home effective field goal percentage (59.2%).
This should be an extremely motivated spot for the Cougars, and while Pullman isn’t a far drive from Spokane, it’s not a familiar road trip for the Zags given Washington State’s temporary status in the West Coast Conference. Look for ‘Cougs to keep this one close. I wouldn’t be surprised with an upset here, so maybe a small sprinkle on the money line is in order, too? Playable to +11.5.
Read our full Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Washington State Cougars prediction
