Caleb Wilfinger
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Champ Week is here! We are less than a week out from Selection Sunday, as the 2022 college basketball postseason is nearly upon us. From Power 6 conferences to mid-major bid stealers, we should have great action throughout this week’s conference tournaments. I’m 6-2 over my last 8 best bets in this column, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Let’s take a look at my best bets for Tuesday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
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Gonzaga Bulldogs -2.5 over Saint Mary’s Gaels (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
We’ve seen this matchup twice now, and it’s clear to me that Gonzaga was the better team in both installments. Yes, Saint Mary’s won at home in the first meeting, but the Gaels got a pretty friendly whistle during their second-half comeback, along with some masterful shot-making from Aidan Mahaney. In my view, Gonzaga did more to lose that game in overtime than Saint Mary’s did to win it. Just over a week ago, we saw a rematch at the Kennell and things were much different, as the Zags won 77-68 and led by double digits most of the way.
What impressed me the most about that performance was that Gonzaga beat Saint Mary’s on both ends, flustering the Gaels’ guards with swarming on-ball pressure and forcing numerous turnovers in the first half. And when the Zags needed crucial buckets down the stretch, they weren’t just reliant on Drew Timme, getting great contributions from Julian Strawther, Anton Watson and Malachi Smith. The Bulldogs shot 54% from the field against a stout Gaels defense, despite only shooting 28% from beyond the arc. Gonzaga is still due for some shooting regression, especially considering how efficient its been since losing in Moraga — averaging over 93 points per game over their last 7 contests. I expect Mark Few’s team to cut down the nets on Tuesday.
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Money line parlay: Virginia Tech over Notre Dame & Boston College over Louisville (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The first major conference tournament will kick off on Tuesday as the ACC tournament gets underway in Greensboro, North Carolina. And while the games aren’t the best to start off this tournament, there is value to be found on the board. Both Virginia Tech and Boston College are playing games against significantly weaker opponents, which makes them attractive candidates to wager on. However, due to end-of-game variance expected with a single-elimination tournament, I’d rather stay away from laying points. Instead, I’ll opt for a money line parlay that pays out at about -110 odds.
For starters, Virginia Tech won this event last season and there’s reason to believe the Hokies could make a deep run. This is a team that the metrics believe in of late, as their performance noticeably improved after Hunter Cattoor returned from injury halfway through conference play. Furthermore, the Hokies are 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency per Kenpom, while Notre Dame checks in at 262nd in defensive efficiency. Virginia Tech hung 34 points on the Irish back on February 11 and I expect a similar result here.
Boston College hasn’t had the greatest of seasons, but the Eagles are still 3-1 over their last 4 games and playing their best basketball of the campaign of late. The duo of Makai Ashton-Langford and Jaeden Zackery provides consistent scoring, which is all you need against a porous Louisville defense ranked at 298th in defensive efficiency this season. The Cardinals are 4-27 on the year and could be the worst ACC team in the history of the conference at this point. Boston College should do enough to get the win here.
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