Caleb Wilfinger
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We’re heading into the final weeks of the college basketball regular season on a positive note in my weekly best bets column, much like many of the top teams across the country. Conference tournaments are just around the corner, so let’s keep the momentum going and finish out the regular season strong!
While the college hoops market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage. Let’s take a look at my best bet for these games on Tuesday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
Florida Gators ML over Alabama Crimson Tide (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Florida -2.5
The Florida Gators are a team I’m looking to back as we head into postseason play, and I think we’re getting a good spot to support the Gators at home against a Alabama team that is proving to be a bit weaker than what most metric sites would suggest. The first meeting resulted in a 98-93 overtime win for Alabama, but the Crimson Tide have since fallen to Kentucky and Tennessee (and neither of those defeats were particularly close). Even taking the revenge spot out of the equation and the fact that Florida is hitting its stride at the right time, there are still serious in this matchup for an Alabama team that is quickly sliding down the metrics ladder in nearly every defensive category.
Nate Oats’ team now is outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom and the Crimson Tide are 116th in that same metric at Barttorvik since the calendar turned to 2024. This could be a major issue against a Florida team that boasts a top 15 offense and a 54.7% effective field goal percentage at home this season. When it comes to defending the interior, Alabama is a lowly 194th in the nation, which doesn’t bode well for this game considering that the Gators grabbed 17 offensive rebounds and recorded an assist on 21 of their 35 field goals back on February 21. Getting to fade the Crimson Tide in a naturally flat spot following a deflating home loss to Tennessee was already a bonus, but I also like the way this Florida team is trending, particularly on offense. The Gators racked up 1.15 points per possession in the previous meeting, and I don’t see a different result occurring on Tuesday. Let’s get to the window with the hosts.
