Sam Avellone
It’s amazing how quickly the college basketball season goes. In the blink of an eye, we went from Feast Week to the final week of the regular season. It’s bittersweet because the NCAA Tournament is that much closer, but the 4-month grind of the college basketball season is unlike anything else. As we embark on the final week, Tuesday’s card offers its typical allotment of high-profile contests, headlined by 2 ranked matchups – Auburn vs Texas A&M and BYU vs Iowa State. Elsewhere, Purdue hopes to keep its momentum going against Rutgers, while Arizona aims to get back into the win-column at home against in-state rival Arizona State.
Saturday was a profitable day, as we achieved a 2-1 result thanks to Alabama and Auburn. That improves my best bet record to 28-16 since January 1st, a win rate of 63.6%. Let’s keep that momentum going with Tuesday’s card!
Looking for more hoops action? Check out the Pickswise college basketball predictions for our thoughts on the rest of Tuesday’s big games.
College basketball Tuesday best bets
Villanova Wildcats -3.5 over Georgetown Hoyas (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Thomas Sorber’s absence is a huge loss for Georgetown in more ways than one, but is felt most on the defensive end of the floor. For reference, the Hoyas allow 92.5 points per 100 possessions with Sober and 117.4 points per 100 possessions without him (Hoop-Explorer). Those defensive deficiencies have been evident in Georgetown’s last 3 games, as the Hoyas gave up at least 1.1 points per possession in each of those contests. They also allowed UConn and Marquette to shoot around 70% from 2-point range in their 2 most recent games, which is not a good omen for Hoyas with Villanova coming to town on Tuesday.
The Wildcats have one of the most efficient offenses in the Big East, and they are playing with revenge on their mind after completely collapsing at home against Georgetown in late January. Villanova had a 42-29 lead just a few minutes into the 2nd half before being outscored by 15 to end the game. Furthermore, Eric Dixon was held to just 5/13 from 2-point range in that game. Needless to say, his efficiency inside the arc should improve without Sober checking him this time around. Betting on a road favorite that is seeking revenge for a same-season home loss is a profitable angle to be on, so that’s the side I’m going to back in this one. Playable to -5.
Auburn Tigers -5.5 over Texas A&M Aggies (-108)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it – right? Auburn is simply cruising right now, and while I don’t love the possibility of Denver Jones missing this game from a defensive perspective, Auburn is more than equipt to win and cover this number against a Texas A&M team that has struggled on both ends of the court lately. The Aggies are in the 20th percentile or worse in offensive and defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics), and their offensive struggles in particular have been well documented. Unless they are scoring off second-chance opportunities via offensive rebounds, the Aggies struggle to produce points with any sort of consistency. In fact, they rate in the 18th percentile or worse in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage this season, and those numbers are even worse in their recent stretch of games.
Conversely, Auburn can fill it up from anywhere on the floor, whether home or away. The Tigers are top 12 in effective field goal percentage away from home, including a 39% road 3-point percentage, and are equipped to expose a Texas A&M defense that is 357th in 3-point rate allowed. It’s hard to trust this Texas A&M team against the best of the best, so laying the points with Auburn is one of my favorite bets on Tuesday’s card. Playable to -7.
Read my full Auburn vs Texas A&M prediction for Tuesday’s massive ranked SEC matchup!
BYU Cougars vs Iowa State Cyclones Over 149.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This matchup between BYU and Iowa State should be electric and will likely play a massive role in determining which of these teams will earn a double-bye in the Big 12 Tournament. Both teams play with above-average pace and are very efficient on the offensive end. In fact, BYU and Iowa State mutually rank in the top 125 in average possession length and in the top 25 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, which makes me gravitate toward the Over in this contest. BYU should be able to attack Iowa State off the dribble, kicking out to open shooters on the perimeter. The Cougars have one of the best perimeter offenses in the country given their top 20 3-point rate and top 30 3-point percentage, and those numbers do not slip much when they play away from the Marriott Center. In fact, the Cougars have a top 20 road 3-point percentage, and have scored at least 80 points in 4 of their last 6 road games.
On the other side, Iowa State appears to be fully healthy now that Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones returned from their short absences. Look for the Cyclones to push the pace of this game with their now-healthy back court and apply pressure to a BYU defense that is 12th in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Cougars also give up a healthy amount of 3-point attempts, which is a weakness that Milan Momcilovic can expose with his 41% shooting from distance. For what it’s worth, Iowa State’s 5 contests against offenses with similar pace and efficiency as BYU have had an average of nearly 160 combined points per game, while BYU’s road games are 7-2-1 to the Over. Playable to 152.
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