Sam Avellone
The college basketball postseason is officially underway, and Tuesday offers a nice variety of games all throughout the day. The ACC and Big 12 Tournaments will tip off early in the afternoon from Charlotte and Kansas City, respectively, and while there aren’t any NCAA Tournament teams in action from either one of these conferences on Tuesday, N.C. State proved last year that it is possible to heat up at the right time and play your way into the Big Dance via the automatic bid that comes with a conference tournament championship. Speaking of championships, there will be multiple on Tuesday. The CAA, Horizon, NEC and WCC will crown their champions by night’s end, officially adding 4 more automatic qualifiers to the NCAA Tournament field.
There aren’t many marquee names in play, but there are a couple spots I like more than the rest on Tuesday’s card. Here are my favorite bets of the bunch, and don’t forget to find the rest of the college basketball picks for Tuesday’s biggest matchups.
College basketball Tuesday best bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Kansas State Wildcats -5.5 over Arizona State Sun Devils (-112)
These teams played twice already, and it was the road team that won each game. Kansas State won by 1 point in Tempe against a healthy Arizona State squad in early February, but the Sun Devils returned the favor more recently with a 66-54 win in Manhattan over the Wildcats — who were without Coleman Hawkins at the time. In fact, Arizona State’s win at Kansas State on February 23 is the only victory on the Sun Devils’ resume in 11 games since January 28. Now shorthanded from the dismissal of BJ Freeman and the knee injury to freshman phenom Jayden Quaintance, I question their ability to keep this game close let alone beat the Wildcats — mostly because of their defensive woes. The Sun Devils have lost 4 straight, all by double-digits, while allowing each of those opponents to score at least 85 points. Furthermore, Arizona State is 334th in effective field-goal percentage allowed since February 15.
Laying points with a team that struggles offensively as much as Kansas State isn’t very settling. The Wildcats are unreliable from the free throw line, and turnovers are abundant with this group. However, they have been strong defensively in the last few weeks, boasting a top 10 mark in Bart Torvik’s adjusted efficiency since February 22. Schematics aside, I really like the situation the Wildcats find themselves in. With a rotation composed of mostly juniors and seniors, they have vastly more experience on their roster, and this game being played so close to campus should be beneficial for KSU from a fan support standpoint. Not to mention the home loss to Arizona State just a few weeks ago likely motivates this veteran team — one that was playing as well as any in the country with wins over Iowa State, Kansas and Arizona in a 2-week span in early February.
The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS as a favorite against their conference opponents, with their lone loss being the aforementioned home defeat against an Arizona State squad that had its defensive stalwart in Quaintance on the floor at the time. It doesn’t sound like head coach Bobby Hurley expects him to play in the Big 12 Tournament, which would severely hamper Arizona State on the defensive end and on the glass. The Sun Devils could also be without sharpshooter Adam Miller, who has missed 3 consecutive games and is questionable with a hip injury. Meanwhile, Kansas State should be at full strength. I’m laying it with the ‘Cats. Playable to -7.
Saint Mary’s Gaels +3.5 over Gonzaga Bulldogs (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
In a familiar WCC Championship matchup, the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the Saint Mary’s Gaels will meet for the third time this season. Saint Mary’s was victorious in both regular-season matchups and even held the Zags, who never led, to 67 total points at home — which was their lowest home scoring output of the season. Despite losing both of those regular season meetings, Gonzaga is listed as a favorite in the WCC Championship, as oddsmakers expect a bounce-back from the Bulldogs on Tuesday night. I don’t see it that way. Gonzaga has routinely struggled against its best competition this season. In fact, the Zags have not beaten a single top-25 team per KenPom’s current rankings and are 2-6 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points since December 1.
Saint Mary’s is one of the best defensive teams in the country year in and year out, and this year has been no different. The Gaels rank in the top 12 in KenPom and Bart Torvik’s defensive efficiency metrics, holding opponents to just 61.5 points per game. Those numbers actually improve when the Gaels play away from home. They are #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency when playing on the road or at a neutral site, and they are the only team in the country that holds opponents under 60 points per game in those contests. Saint Mary’s has the upper hand in the rebounding department against Gonzaga, as well. The Gaels are top 10 in both offensive rebounding rate and rebounding rate allowed, and they have plenty of size in the paint to limit Graham Ike. I expect the Gaels to once again take the Zags out of their rhythm by limiting possessions and preventing second-chance opportunities, so I will gladly take the points with Saint Mary’s in the WCC Championship. Playable to +2.5.
Read our full Gonzaga vs St. Mary’s prediction
