Sam Avellone
It may be Super Bowl week, but college basketball is in full force with just about 6 weeks remaining until March Madness. As we approach the postseason, conference play is really starting to heat up, and Tuesday’s hoops card is jam-packed with multiple intriguing games. As many as 5 AP Top 10 teams will be in action, not including 2 ranked matchups in Marquette vs St John’s and Kentucky vs Ole Miss. Make sure you check out our college basketball predictions for all of those games and more.
Like on Saturdays, I’m here to break down my 3 favorite picks on the board. Despite a few tough breaks in the last 2 editions of this article, we’re on an 8-4 run since the start of the new year – a win rate of 75%. Let’s shake off the bad beat on Texas A&M (I’m not still sour or anything) and get to my college basketball best bets for Tuesday’s loaded card.
Drake Bulldogs -4.5 over Murray State Racers (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
These teams met about a month ago, and it was the visiting Murray State Racers that uncharacteristically shot 60% from inside the arc and nearly 47% beyond it. They won the game outright as 10-point underdogs, handing Drake 1 of its 2 losses of the season. Unlike the Racers, the Bulldogs couldn’t buy a bucket in that game. They connected on fewer than 29% of their perimeter attempts, which is well below their season average of 38% against conference opponents – the best mark in the Missouri Valley.
Needless to say, I don’t think the Racers are going to be that fortunate on either side of the floor this time around. Drake has ripped off 8 straight wins since its January 5 home loss to Murray State, which is the nation’s 6th-longest active winning streak. The offense has been humming, ranking 29th nationally in effective field goal percentage since January 8 while shooting better than 40% from the perimeter. The Bulldogs have also been very good on the defensive end, forcing turnovers on 24.2% of possessions – which ranks 5th nationally in that same span.
The Racers have not been in good form, losing 5 of their last 6. Their 2 most recent losses have been somewhat alarming, as they allowed an average of 77.5 points to the 2 worst offenses in the conference in Evansville and Missouri State. Given their current form, I don’t think they have enough to stay inside the number against a Drake team seeking revenge for its first home loss since January 2023. For what it’s worth, road favorites who lost as a home favorite to the same opponent earlier in the year are 17-10 ATS since the start of last season. Playable to -6.
Read our full Drake vs Murray State prediction
Texas Tech Red Raiders -7.5 over Baylor Bears (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Baylor Bears had an incredible comeback victory at home over Kansas on Saturday in which they scored 60 2nd-half points and overcame a 21-point 1st-half deficit. However, freshman sensation VJ Edgecombe was unable to finish the game because of an ankle injury, and his status for this game remains uncertain at the time of writing this article. His absence would be a massive blow for an already depleted Baylor squad, as Jeremy Roach and Langston Love remain sidelined. Following the emotional comeback win, the Bears will have to make the quick trip to Lubbock to play Texas Tech – where the Red Raiders are typically very strong. In fact, Texas Tech is top 30 in home effective field-goal percentage (58%) and averages more than 84 points per game on its home floor.
Despite this being what some may consider a hangover spot after a 1-point overtime win over Houston on Saturday, I think the Red Raiders keep their foot on the gas at home against a Baylor defense that has struggled in conference play – especially on the road. In fact, the Bears yield a 56.6% effective field-goal percentage on the road, which is bottom 40 nationally. To make matters worse, Edgecombe is Baylor’s best defender per Evan Miya. If he doesn’t play, I’m not sure how the Bears are going to get stops. Expect a rowdy atmosphere in Lubbock. Playable to -9.
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Arizona Wildcats vs BYU Cougars Over 151.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Don’t be surprised if this is an up-and-down contest with plenty of points. The Arizona Wildcats play at one of the faster paces in the Big 12, and while BYU doesn’t play as fast as them on paper, I think the Cougars’ pace metrics are a bit skewed having played a majority of their games against teams that rank outside the top 200 in average possession length (KenPom). The Cougars have shown a willingness to run, as each of their games against UCF, Fresno State and Oklahoma State – all top 75 in average possession length like Arizona – reached at least 155 points.
Arizona is top 3 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage and free-throw percentage, and I don’t expect BYU’s defense to pose much of a threat to this unit. BYU is 11th in the conference in defensive efficiency and has given up at least 75 points to 6 of the 7 teams it has played that rank in the top 75 in offensive efficiency. On the other end of the floor, the Wildcats have been strong, but the Cougars are an elite offensive bunch when they play at home – boasting a 52% shooting percentage in the friendly confines of the Marriott Center. Both of these defenses are outside the top 300 in three-point rate allowed, so expect a healthy amount of perimeter shots in addition to the uptempo pace of play. Playable to 153.5.
