Sam Avellone
The calendar flips to March on Saturday, and next week is the final week of the college basketball regular season. You know what that means; the madness is almost here! Tuesday’s hoops card isn’t loaded with marquee games, but about half of the top 10 teams are in play – headlined by the lone ranked matchup of the day between Mississippi State and Alabama. Elsewhere, Duke, Florida, Tennessee and Iowa State all hit the road as favorites, hoping to avoid a late-season upset.
We got back on track on Saturday with a respectable 2-1 result. As it currently stands, I am 23-12 on these best bets since January 1st, and am hungry to continue this run through the rest of the regular season. Let’s get straight to the picks, and don’t forget to check out our college basketball predictions for more Tuesday action from the Pickswise staff.
College basketball Tuesday best bets
Miami Hurricanes Team Total Under 64.5 (-118)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
At the beginning of the month, Miami looked like it was starting to come around with 2 wins in 3 games. However, that is a distant memory at this point given 3 consecutive poor offensive showings in recent games against Pitt, Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes were without leading scorer Matthew Cleveland on Saturday against Virginia Tech due to an ankle injury, and his status for the game against Duke on Tuesday is currently up in the air. His absence certainly wouldn’t help Miami, as the Hurricanes are nearly 10 points worse per 100 possessions without Cleveland on the floor (Hoop-Explorer).
Miami has to win at least 3 of its last 4 games and get lucky to even have a chance to make the ACC Tournament, so I’m not completely sold on Cleveland rushing back for this game. Whether he plays or not, the Hurricanes are unlikely to find much success against this vaunted Duke defense. In the first matchup against the Blue Devils, the Hurricanes scored just 0.86 points per possession and 54 total points. The ‘Canes were dominated on the boards in that game – in which Cleveland played – and only got to the free throw line twice. I’m not convinced the change in venue is going to do anything for the Miami offense in this one. This team doesn’t get to the free throw line, doesn’t generate second-chance opportunities via offensive rebounds and lacks any sort of consistency from the 3-point line. Meanwhile, Duke is in the 93rd percentile in defensive rating over its last 5 games and has given up 65 or more points just twice in 8 ACC road games. Look for Miami’s freshman back court to be overwhelmed again by Duke’s perimeter defense, and don’t be surprised to see Lynn Kidd regress from the 20 points he scored in the first meeting with the Blue Devils. Playable to 63.5.
Wisconsin Badgers Team Total Over 83.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Wisconsin really struggled offensively on Saturday in a home overtime loss to Oregon. The Badgers failed to score at least 1 point per possession for the first time at home this season, making only 7 of their 28 3-point attempts. I’m expecting that to improve significantly on Tuesday night against a struggling Washington defense. When playing on the road, the Huskies allow opponents to make about 39% of their perimeter shots. Moreover, the Huskies are in the 2nd percentile nationally in defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics) and 348th in defensive momentum (Haslametrics).
Despite their inability to hit 3s consistently against the Ducks, the Badgers make about 37% of their 3-point attempts at home. Furthermore, Wisconsin is in the 98th percentile in 3-point attempts per game over its last 5 games (30), while sitting in the 97th percentile in 3-point percentage over that span (38.7%). Expect a healthy amount of Wisconsin free throws in this game, too. Whether it’s off the dribble or via some type of cut to the hoop, the Badgers love attacking the rim, which is going to test a Washington defense that is 15th in the Big Ten in free throw rate allowed and in the 5th percentile in fouls per game over their last 5 games. Playable to 85.
Check out the Pickswise college basketball best bets for our confident picks of the day!
Louisville Cardinals -10.5 over Virginia Tech Hokies (-105)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Laying more than double digits on the road in conference play is not for the faint of heart, but this Louisville squad is more than capable of covering big numbers away from home. In fact, the Cardinals are 9-1 ATS on the road this season and 5-1 as a road favorite – including a cover at Boston College laying as many as 13.5 points. The ‘Cards won that game by 26. As it currently stands, Louisville has won 12 of its 14 conference games by double digits.
Louisville has a home-road dichotomy that is the opposite of what we usually see from college basketball teams. For reference, the Cardinals carry a 57.1% effective field goal percentage away from the KFC Yum! Center while averaging almost 82 points per game in those contests. At home, their effective field goal percentage is below 50% and they average about 4 less points per game. I expect those strong Louisville road trends to continue in this matchup given Virginia Tech’s struggles on both ends of the floor. In their last 5 games, the Hokies are in the 32nd percentile in offensive rating and in the 46th percentile in defensive rating. They have routinely struggled with turnovers in conference play, as well, which is going to cost them against a Louisville squad that has a massive advantage at the guard position in this matchup and averages more than 15 points per game off turnovers this season (CBB Analytics). Playable to -12.
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