Sam Avellone
The college basketball regular season has reached its final stretch, as each game becomes that much more important for the postseason race – whether it’s seeding in a conference tournament or fighting to land on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Just about 3 weeks remain until the conference tournament madness starts, and Tuesday’s slate of games offers multiple matchups that could go a long way in determining postseason seeding. Will UConn right the ship in a revenge spot against Villanova? How likely is it that Purdue snaps its 2-game losing streak at Michigan State? Can Oklahoma save its season on the road against a top-5 Florida squad? We will know the answers to all of these questions by the end of the night on Tuesday.
The run continued on Saturday, as we swept the board for the 4th time in 5 tries. The 3-0 result improved our record to 21-5 since the turn of the calendar year, and I have 3 more picks ready for Tuesday’s card to add to the total. Let’s get to picks, and make sure to check out the Pickswise college basketball predictions for our staff’s thoughts on the rest of the Tuesday slate.
UConn Huskies -4.5 first half over Villanova Wildcats (-105)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Both of these teams lost over the weekend while playing on the road against 1 of the bottom 4 teams in the Big East. Villanova lost at Providence by double digits, and UConn lost a very ugly game in overtime at Seton Hall despite holding a 7-point lead with less than a minute left. With both teams still jockeying for a 1st-round bye in the Big East Tournament, this game is big for the final conference standings – but UConn is also in a revenge spot on Tuesday night.
The Huskies lost at Villanova earlier this season without Liam McNeeley, who has scored 67 points combined in his first 3 games back from injury. The Huskies are so much better defensively with McNeely on the floor too, especially on the perimeter – where Villanova loves to shoot. For reference, opponents shoot under 34% from beyond the arc with McNeeley on the floor and almost 39% when he’s off the floor.
This spot is very appealing for the Huskies. Look for coach Dan Hurley to have his team ready for a fast start, not only because of their awful ending on Saturday at Seton Hall, but because of the loss at Villanova earlier this season. The Huskies have a +5.5 first half scoring margin at home, and the Wildcats are playing their second consecutive road game – where they score 4 fewer points in first halves than they do at home. Playable to -5.
Read our full Villanova vs UConn prediction
Texas A&M Aggies +2.5 over Mississippi State Bulldogs (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Texas A&M Aggies will take their 5-game winning streak into StarkVegas on Tuesday night, where the Bulldogs have lost their last 3 games. In fact, Mississippi State’s only conference wins at home have been a 35-point beatdown of South Carolina and a 3-point overtime victory over Ole Miss – who State just beat again in Oxford on Saturday despite shooting 26% from distance and 66.7% from the free throw line.
The Bulldogs had the most success on fast breaks, on the boards and in the paint, all of which are going to be harder to navigate against a Texas A&M team that leads the SEC in offensive rebounding rate and offensive rebounding rate allowed while ranking 6th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and 11th in shot-blocking. Moreover, the Aggies are in the 90th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games according to CBB Analytics, as well as in the 97th percentile in Hakeem percentage (the combination of block percentage and steal percentage).
Josh Hubbard is what makes Mississippi State’s offense go, and Texas A&M is well-equipped to defend him. The Aggies have 4 of the top defenders in the conference per Evan Miya, 2 of which are their starting guards in Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps. Phelps is extremely good in the passing lanes, as he is in the top 35 in steal rate out of 2,294 eligible players nationwide. Down on the block, Solomon Washington, Andersson Garcia, and Pharrel Payne are all top 250 nationally in block rate and are extremely good rebounders – especially on the offensive end.
The Aggies lead the country in offensive rebounds per game, which should lead to a plethora of second-chance opportunities against the Bulldogs. For what it’s worth, Mississippi State has failed to surpass 68 points against any of the 3 top 15 defenses it has played this season. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are 1-5 SU against top 25 opponents, and their efficiency numbers on both ends of the floor drop outside the top 80 in those matchups. While I think the wrong team is favored here, I’m going to take the points for a little extra cushion. Playable to pk.
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Iowa State team total Over 79.5 vs Colorado Buffaloes (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This will be a very rare 3rd regular season meeting for Iowa State and Colorado, as they played against each other in the Maui Invitational (which was scheduled before Colorado joined the Big 12) before the holidays and then again in Boulder immediately after the holidays. In the Maui meeting, the Cyclones couldn’t miss. They shot nearly 73% from two-point range and 44% beyond the three-point line en route to a 99-point showing, but the 2nd meeting in Colorado couldn’t have been any more different for Iowa State – as the Cyclones shot 50% from two-point range and just 22% beyond the arc. In fact, they grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and weren’t able to do much with them, shooting just 59% at the rim and 14% in the paint.
With the 3rd meeting between these teams being in Ames, I expect Iowa State’s offensive production to be somewhere between the 1st and 2nd meeting. The Cyclones hit a lull offensively for a couple weeks in the absence of Milan Momcilovic, but he is back in the rotation now – which is a huge boost for this unit. Momcilovic shoots around 44% from range and should be able to extend Colorado’s defense like he did in the first meeting when he made 6 of his 9 perimeter attempts.
For what it’s worth, Iowa State makes 38% of its perimeter shots at home, which is about 8% better than its road performances. All things considered, the Cyclones should be able to surpass 80 points here against a Colorado defense that is outside the top 160 in efficiency against top 50 opponents (Bart Torvik) and cash this final best bet for Tuesday’s college hoops card. Playable to 81.
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