Sam Avellone
The Super Bowl is in the rearview mirror, and with March Madness swiftly approaching as the next major sporting event in the United States, college basketball has entered the national spotlight and will remain there for about the next 2 months. If you’re just now joining the fun that is college basketball, we’re happy to have you – but you’re late. In case you didn’t hear, #1 Auburn and #2 Duke lost over the weekend, the bubble is about 40 teams deep, the SEC is loaded and St. John’s is all the way back. However, you’re right on time for an awesome Tuesday night of college hoops and my college basketball best bets of the day.
Congratulations if you tailed my picks last week. Saturday’s 3-0 result was our 2nd straight sweep, pushing our record to 14-4 since the start of the calendar year. I’m eager to keep that momentum going, so let’s dive right in! Here are my college basketball picks and best bets on Tuesday’s hoops card, and if you’re looking for more picks, don’t forget to check out the Pickswise college basketball predictions for our staff’s thoughts on the biggest games of the night.
George Mason Patriots ML over Saint Louis Billikens (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Saint Louis has struggled to gain any sort of momentum in conference play, and it’s unlikely to get any easier with George Mason coming to town on Tuesday night. The Patriots not only have the best defense in the Atlantic 10 with 4 of the conference’s top 15 defenders (Evan Miya), but they have one of the most efficient defenses in the entire country – holding opponents to 43.1% from inside the arc and just 29% beyond it.
GMU also plays at a bottom 50 tempo, which should prevent Saint Louis from running in transition like it wants to do under coach Josh Schertz. The Billikens have relied on the fast break for nearly 20% of their points over their last 5 games, so without those points in transition, there is going to be a lot of added pressure on their struggling perimeter offense that has connected on just 30.2% of its shots in its last 5 games. For what it’s worth, Saint Louis is 3-6 SU against top 100 defenses and this is the best one on its schedule per KenPom’s metrics, making it a great spot to target in our college basketball best bets. Playable to -1.5.
Lock in our college basketball picks for tonight’s big games
Marquette Golden Eagles -18.5 over DePaul Blue Demons (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
With losses to UConn, St. John’s and Creighton, Marquette’s recent 3-game skid isn’t the worst from a resume standpoint, but the Golden Eagles are going to be hungry to get back into the win column on Tuesday night – and this is a great spot for them to do just that. Back at home, the Golden Eagles will host a struggling DePaul team that will be without its point guard in Conor Enright, who scored 11 points and dished out 11 assists in the first meeting between these teams in Chicago. DePaul shot well above its season averages in that game, so without Enright, the Blue Demons are unlikely to replicate that performance.
In their last 5 games, the Blue Demons average just 60.4 points per game, which is in the 1st percentile nationally per CBB Analytics. Moreover, they are in the 7th percentile in effective field-goal percentage in that span – meaning their shots haven’t been falling from anywhere on the floor recently. Assuming those offensive struggles continue, it’s going to be tough for the Blue Demons to keep this one close. Marquette has one of the better home offenses in the country, averaging nearly 81 points per game at Fiserv Forum. Look for Kam Jones to lead the Golden Eagles to a comfortable victory. Playable to -20.
SMU Mustangs -5 over Pitt Panthers (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is a tricky turnaround for the Panthers, who not only lost by 1 to the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill on Saturday evening, but also lost Damian Dunn to another injury – this time a fractured elbow. Stinging from another close loss and now short-handed, the Panthers will make the quick trip to Dallas to play a strong SMU squad that has been idle since Wednesday. Pitt’s defense has really struggled of late, ranking 354th in Haslametrics’ defensive momentum and sitting in the 15th percentile in defensive rating over its last 5 games (CBB Analytics). That is troublesome against an SMU offense that can score in bunches.
The Mustangs average 86.1 points per game on a 55.4% effective field-goal percentage at home this season, and outside of games against Duke and Louisville, they have consistently performed on their home floor. They have 6 players that average at least 10 points per game, and most of those guys can step out and hit perimeter shots – which has been an area of concern for Pitt defensively in league play. For reference, SMU is 2nd in the ACC in three-point percentage, while Pitt is 17th in the ACC in three-point rate allowed and 16th in opposing three-point percentage. SMU should roll here and deliver for us as the last of our college basketball best bets. Playable to -6.
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