Caleb Wilfinger
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Champ Week is here! We are less than a week out from Selection Sunday, as the 2022-23 college basketball postseason is nearly upon us. From Power 6 conferences to mid-major bid stealers, we should have great action throughout this week’s conference tournaments. I’m 8-2 over my last 10 best bets in this column, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Let’s take a look at my best bets for Thursday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
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Michigan Wolverines -2.5 over Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
At this point in the season, Rutgers is a sinking stone on the basketball court. The Scarlet Knights have been demonstrably worse since Mawot Mag suffered a season-ending injury back in early February. Since Mag went down, Rutgers is 2-6 and has suffered 3 losses in its last 4 games. The Scarlet Knights are one miraculous comeback against Penn State from being on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble. They are struggling mightily and I don’t expect that to change against a motivated Michigan side.
The Wolverines are in the NCAA tournament picture, but are mostly looked at as a team on the outside looking in at this stage. However, a run in the Big Ten tournament would do a lot to help their resume, and it can start by knocking off another team on the bubble in Rutgers. Michigan has performed well at home, and the team is starting to coming together on the road. The Wolverines knocked off Rutgers and followed that up with single-digit losses to Illinois and Indiana in games they should have won. Michigan is top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom, while Rutgers sits at 172nd in offensive efficiency by comparison. Look for the Wolverines to continue their solid run of form on Thursday.
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Arkansas Razorbacks ML (+100) over Auburn Tigers
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I was surprised to see Auburn listed as a short favorite in this spot considering the Tigers’ struggles on the road. Auburn is 0-6 in its last 6 games away from the Jungle, with a few of those losses even coming as a favorite. The Tigers don’t shoot the ball well from the outside, especially on the road, so I don’t see positive shooting regression coming in a neutral-court game against a stout defense. Arkansas has lost 3 straight, creating a nice buy-low spot for a team that could’ve easily knocked off Alabama in its last road game. The Razorbacks are 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and create havoc on opponents by forcing turnovers and attacking the paint. If the Hogs are able to get Auburn’s mercurial guards out of rhythm, they’ll have a massive leg up in this one. I’d play this up to Arkansas -2.
Penn State Nittany Lions +3 (-110) vs Illinois
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The old adage states that it’s difficult to beat a team 3 times in the same season, but I’m not sure that holds true here. After all, Penn State was in complete control of its first 2 meetings against Illinois this season, so why would that change now? Yes, the Illini will likely have the greater fan support, but the Nittany Lions are playing the better basketball of late. Penn State is fresh off victories over Northwestern and Maryland to keep its postseason hopes alive, while Illinois miraculously defeated Michigan in overtime before falling to Purdue. Furthermore, the on-court matchup is one that favors the Nittany Lions, as Penn State controls the game with its slow tempo (324th per KenPom), hits a ton of 3-pointers and doesn’t turn the ball over. I’ll gladly take the full 3 points in what should be an entertaining contest.
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