Caleb Wilfinger
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We are less than 2 weeks out from Selection Sunday, as the 2022 college basketball regular season is hitting its peak. This week’s slate has already been a wild one and we should have more great action in store throughout this week. I’m 5-1 over my last 6 best bets after going 2-1 in Tuesday’s column, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Let’s take a look at my best bets for Thursday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
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Illinois Fighting Illini -3.5 over Michigan Wolverines (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This is your “buy low, sell high” spot of the day, and it comes in the Big Ten. Illinois is coming off a tough loss at the hands of Ohio State, a team that had previously dropped 9 of its last 10 games. The Illini played one of their worst games of the season and looked out of sorts for the majority of the contest. However, that’s given us an opportunity to bank on Illinois bouncing back on its home floor against a Michigan side that escaped with a win over Wisconsin at home on Sunday.
It took a halfcourt buzzer-beater from Hunter Dickinson for the Wolverines to force overtime and eventually defeat a struggling Badgers team. Now, the Wolverines will hit the road, where they only have 3 wins all season in true road games. Illinois is 14-2 at home this season and has a 60% cover rate against the spread. The Illini are 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, and I expect them to contain Dickinson in the post and force Michigan to win with its perimeter play. Look for Illinois to speed up Michigan’s backcourt in what should be a raucous environment in Champaign.
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Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCLA Bruins Under 134.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Arizona State pulled off one of the best finishes of the season last Saturday, as the Sun Devils hit a miraculous buzzer-beater to knock off Arizona on the road. However, now they’ll head to Los Angeles for a second straight road game against a difficult opponent. Things shouldn’t nearly be as easy for Arizona State on the offensive side as they were against Arizona, as UCLA boasts one of the best defenses in the country, sitting at 2nd in defensive efficiency per KenPom. The Sun Devils can play fast, but they’re still well outside the top 100 in adjusted tempo on the season, so it’s fair to expect a more deliberate game from this team as a heavy underdog on Thursday.
On the other side, the Bruins are 256th in adjusted tempo per KenPom, as this veteran-laden team has no issue slowing things down and executing their offense in the halfcourt. The first meeting between these teams saw the game finish with 136 total points, but the game script certainly favored an under. In fact, if not for some late, unnecessary fouls in the waning seconds, the game would have gone under this total. Seeing as Arizona State is 34th in defensive efficiency and will be looking for another massive win to boost its NCAA Tournament resume, I think we see great defensive showings from both sides. I’ll back the under at this number.
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