Sam Avellone
Conference championship week is rolling right along, as we are now just 1 week away from the start of the NCAA Tournament (not including the First Four). In classic March fashion, Wednesday was loaded with dramatic finishes. Kansas and UCF needed 5 extra minutes to determine a winner, while USC and Rutgers needed 10 extra minutes. Arkansas almost blew a massive lead against South Carolina and Montana was able to hold off a late-game surge from Northern Colorado to win the Big Sky and punch a ticket to the Big Dance.
Thursday provides another full day of college hoops from 11:00 am ET until midnight, and with conference tournaments advancing past the first round, all of the marquee teams will be in action. I picked out a couple of my favorite bets of the day and will break them down for you here. If you’re looking for more bets, check out the Pickswise college basketball picks every day from now until the end of the NCAA Tournament. But for now, let’s dive into my college basketball best bets.
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College basketball Thursday best bets
Clemson Tigers -6.5 over SMU Mustangs (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
SMU cruised past Syracuse on Wednesday night, shooting better than 50% from the field against the Orange. However, the level of difficulty will ramp up on Thursday when they meet the Clemson Tigers in the 2nd round of the ACC Tournament. These teams played a few weeks ago at SMU and Clemson was convincing in a 10-point win. The Tigers scored 1.27 points per possession in that game, connecting on 48% of their three-point attempts. They also forced 16 turnovers.
SMU has struggled mightily against the top defenses this season, which is not good news for the Mustangs against Clemson. The Tigers are 7th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month (Bart Torvik), and they have plenty of size in the frontcourt to limit SMU’s offensive rebounding. Furthermore, Clemson excels at limiting transition opportunities, which is where SMU thrives offensively. All things considered, I struggle to find confidence in SMU’s offense in this matchup. The Mustangs are 1-7 SU against top-65 defenses per KenPom’s metrics, losing those 7 games by an average of about 14 points. Meanwhile, Clemson has covered the spread in 12 of its last 15 games, including 7-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points. Lay it with Clemson.
Read our full SMU vs Clemson prediction
Oklahoma Sooners +6 over Kentucky Wildcats (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This Oklahoma team has been hot, hot, hot over the last few weeks, averaging nearly 84 points per game over their last 5 thanks to some impressive shooting numbers. They are in the 100th percentile in effective field-goal percentage and true-shooting percentage in that span, and I like how they match up against a Kentucky defense that has given up at least 82 points in each of their last 5 games away from Rupp Arena.
The Wildcats will be without Jaxson Robinson in this game, which really hurts their perimeter offense. You could argue Oklahoma actually has the better perimeter offense in this matchup, as the Sooners have 3 players that make at least 38% of their three-point shots on at least 90 attempts. That doesn’t include Jeremiah Fears, who has routinely put the team on his back when it matters most. Fears had 29 points in the win over Georgia on Wednesday, and being surrounded by multiple shooters makes him that much more dangerous in the lanes when attacking the rim.
Given how hot this offense has been of late, I like Oklahoma to keep this game close and potentially even win outright. The Sooners are right next to Kentucky in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 2 weeks, playing inspired ball at the right time for coach Porter Moser. Look for Fears to thrive in Oklahoma’s attack and kick sets, and for the Sooners’ shooters to be too much to handle for Kentucky on Thursday. Take the points, and sprinkle a little on the money line.
Read our full Oklahoma vs Kentucky prediction, including a 3-star best bet!
