Caleb Wilfinger
March is here and the Pickswise college basketball handicapping team has been in good form in conference play. After another profitable week for our college basketball best bets column, we’re heading into the final day of the regular season on a positive note. Let’s keep the momentum going!
While the college hoops market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage. Let’s take a look at my best bets for the Sunday slate, and make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
Michigan Wolverines +7.5 vs Michigan State Spartans (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Michigan +7.
One of the high-profile games on the college basketball card on Sunday takes place in East Lansing, Michigan where the Michigan State Spartans will host the Michigan Wolverines in a heated Big Ten matchup. This rivalry has significant implications in terms of conference tournament and potential NCAA tournament seeding, but it’s important to note that Michigan State has already locked up the Big Ten regular season title for the 11th time, tied for the most in Big Ten Conference history. The Spartans clinching the conference championship and potentially having a letdown the weekend before the conference tournament makes this a fascinating handicap, especially given Michigan’s struggles over its last 10 games. I’ve been fading the Wolverines often over the past month, but this is a good spot to sell high on Tom Izzo’s group and take Michigan coming off back-to-back demoralizing losses at home.
Michigan’s offense (54th in adjusted efficiency, 32nd in effective field goal percentage) is propelled by Danny Wolf – a 7-footer that is a terrific rebounder and an elite shot-blocker while shooting over 40% from beyond the 3-point arc. Wolf’s ability to stretch the floor and generate open looks for his teammates can’t be understand against a Michigan State defense that, while excellent, don’t do a good enough job of forcing turnovers (236th in turnover percentage) and allows a ton of open looks from beyond the arc (259th in 3-point rate allowed). It’s important to note that teams are likely due for some positive regression in the 3-point shooting department against Michigan State, with the Spartans sitting at 10th in 3-point percentage allowed, despite allowing all of those attempts. With that in mind, the Wolverines should be able to cash in on some of those wide open looks, while also attacking the passing lanes and exploiting some of the minor flaws in this Michigan State defense. I’ll back the desperate road underdog in this rivalry game.
Check out our full prediction for Michigan vs Michigan State
St. Thomas Tommies -3.5 over Omaha Mavericks (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to St Thomas -4.5
The Omaha Mavericks have been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, and after demolishing South Dakota in the Summit League tournament semifinals on Saturday, the Mavericks have qualified for the NCAA Tournament for the first time in their Division 1 history. Thanks to St Thomas, being ineligible for the Big Dance due to NCAA protocols for new Division I programs, Omaha doesn’t have to worry at all about winning this game and securing a conference title. That sets us up for one of the more unique spots you’ll see all season, one that obviously favors the Tommies in a game that they already have a few key matchup edges in.
Led by veteran guard Kendall Blue, St Thomas boasts an excellent offense (56th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 3rd in effective field goal percentage) that should have no trouble scoring early and often against a poor Omaha defense (236th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 296th in effective field goal percentage defense). The Tommies also do a fantastic job of playing smart and avoiding costly turnovers, ranking inside the top 10 in turnover percentage this season. This is a top 10 unit in the nation in both 2-point and 3-point percentage on the season, and I’d expect more success against an Omaha defense that is outside the top 300 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage defense (Barttorvik). St Thomas’ defense is far from perfect itself, but it’s hard to gauge just how focused Omaha’s offense will be given that the Mavericks likely spent the previous 24 hours celebrating a historic milestone for this program. Even if all factors were equal, I’d look to back St Thomas in this matchup, and the spot is simply too good to pass up. Let’s back the Tommies to win comfortably and end their season with a conference title.
