Caleb Wilfinger
The college basketball season is heating up and the Pickswise handicapping team has been in good form in conference play. After another profitable week for our college basketball best bets column, we’re heading into the final week of the regular season on a positive note, much like many of the top teams across the country. Let’s keep the momentum going!
While the college hoops market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage. Let’s take a look at my best bets for the Sunday slate, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
Wisconsin Badgers +4.5 vs Michigan State Spartans (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to Wisconsin +4.
As far as situational spots go, this is about as good of a spot as you can draw up for the Badgers, even with the game being played in East Lansing. After all, Michigan State is fresh off an absolutely massive win on a halfcourt heave at the buzzer against Maryland, a game in which the Spartans struggled mightily to score for the majority of the contest. Winning close isn’t something new to Michigan State, but eventually the other shoe will have to drop at some point. Over the last 7 games, the Spartans have close wins over UCLA, Oregon Illinois, Purdue, Michigan and Maryland, and that can’t be sustainable for a long period of time. This will also be the 5th game in a 15-day span for Michigan State, so fatigue could come into play once we hit the second half.
As for the Badgers, Greg Gard’s team is coming off a routine victory over Washington in which Wisconsin’s offense got back on track in a major way. That success should carry over into Sunday’s matchup against a Michigan State defense that is excellent (6th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom), but has been on the right side of some very fortunate shooting variance from its opponents of late. Considering that Wisconsin is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league, I wouldn’t expect the Spartans to get this fortunate once again on Sunday. Furthermore, the Spartans don’t do a good enough job of forcing turnovers (222nd in turnover percentage) and they allow a ton of open looks from beyond the arc (333rd in 3-point rate allowed). If there was ever a team to take advantage of these lapses, it would be this Wisconsin program that is shooting the cover off the ball in Big Ten play. All things considered, it wouldn’t shock me if the Badgers won the game outright, so I’ll certainly grab the points with Wisconsin here.
Check out our full prediction for Wisconsin vs Michigan State
Illinois Fighting Illini +3.5 vs Michigan Wolverines (-105)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to Illinois +3
On paper, these teams are pretty similar metrically, but you wouldn’t think that based on the perception around both programs at the moment. Michigan is flying high, having won 8 of its last 9 contests to climb into a tie for the top spot in the Big Ten standings. However, the Wolverines haven’t exactly been covering spreads with any sort of consistency over the past month. In fact, Michigan has a point differential of -12 over its last 11 games, despite posting a 9-2 record in that span. Each of those wins came by 4 points or fewer, so it’s entirely possible that we could be in for a similar result on Sunday if the Wolverines do prevail. With that in mind, I’m more inclined to take a shot on Illinois on the road in this one, especially since the Illini are a bit undervalued in the market following a brutal stretch in which large swaths of the team had the flu. Brad Underwood’s squad finally got healthy earlier this week, and they should be at full strength on Sunday in Ann Arbor.
Michigan’s excellent offense (20th in adjusted efficiency, 10th in effective field goal percentage) is propelled by Danny Wolf – a 7-footer that is a terrific rebounder and an elite shot-blocker while shooting over 40% from beyond the 3-point arc. Wolf’s ability to stretch the floor can’t be understand in a game of this magnitude, but the Illini have the length with Tomislav Ivišić to make Wolf uncomfortable in this matchup. On the other side, Illinois’ offense is due for some positive shooting regression in a major way (327th in 3-point percentage), and teams are going to eventually make shots against Michigan when it matters. We just saw the Spartans attack the paint and hit outside shots in last week’s win over the Wolverines, and this should be a good matchup for Kylan Boswell and Kasparas Jakučionis to dictate the tempo of this game when Illinois has the ball. Ultimately, I’m expecting Michigan to trip up and lose this game outright, so I’ll gladly take the points with an undervalued Illini team.
Check out our full prediction for Illinois vs Michigan
