Caleb Wilfinger
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The college basketball season is in full swing and after a wild Saturday with compelling matchups between AP Top 25 teams and showdowns between top conference foes from the blue bloods to the mid-majors, Sunday’s slate is a little tame in comparison. However, there are still some compelling matchups between NCAA Tournament teams and Power 5 powerhouses alike, including a marquee contest in the Big Ten between Purdue and Wisconsin.
While the college hoops market is as sharp as its ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage of. Let’s take a look at my best bet for all of Sunday’s action, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
Wisconsin Badgers +3 vs Purdue Boilermakers (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Saturday was a tough pill to swallow for my Baylor -2.5 best bet, as the Bears blew a double digit lead in the second half and missed a free throw in the waning seconds which would’ve gotten us to the window. End of game variance has not been kind to us lately, but hopefully we won’t need any bounces in the final minute to go our way in this Big Ten clash between Purdue and Wisconsin. Much like I’ve done all season long, I’m going back to the well with another Big Ten home team in conference play, as I like the Badgers to at least keep this game within one possession at the Kohl Center. Given that Purdue needed overtime at home to knock off Northwestern as a double-digit favorite earlier this week while Wisconsin blew a double-digit lead in a road loss to Nebraska on Thursday, the spot does line up nicely from a situational perspective, and I expect this veteran Badgers team to take advantage of the opportunity.
Purdue is an elite offense (#1 in offensive efficiency at KenPom) and with Zach Edey in the middle and the talent the Boilermakers have on the perimeter, it’s easy to see why. However, ShotQuality and some of the other metric sites suggest that Matt Painter’s side is due for some shooting regression, particularly from beyond the 3-point arc. The Boilermakers also rank 180th in free-throw percentage on the season, which is something to monitor in a game that should be close throughout. On the other side, Wisconsin is a deep and experienced team that boasts a top-10 offense while playing at one of the slowest paces in the country. Those factors instinctively point me in the direction of an underdog, particularly one playing in front of their home fans. I’m expecting an absolutely raucous crowd in a game that has massive implications for the regular season Big Ten title. As the old adage goes; if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Let’s take Wisconsin in a rare conference underdog spot at home.
