Caleb Wilfinger
The college basketball season is in full swing and the Pickswise handicapping team has been in good form of late. After a 2-1 Saturday on college basketball best bets, we’re heading into the final couple of weeks of the regular season on a positive note, much like many of the top teams across the country. Let’s keep the momentum going!
While the college hoops market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage. Let’s take a look at my best bets for the Sunday slate, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
ULCA Bruins -6.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to ULCA -7
One of the best situational spots of the weekend comes in the Big Ten, as the Ohio State Buckeyes are hitting the west coast for a date in Southern California with the UCLA Bruins on Sunday. While the metrics would tell you that Ohio State is a top 40 team this season, that hasn’t stopped the Buckeyes from feeling like a roller coaster of a team throughout conference play. That hasn’t changed in recent games, as Ohio State lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in which it played up to the level of competition, only to follow that up with a disastrous home loss to Northwestern as a double-digit favorite. Now, the Buckeyes have to travel across the country and play a game less than 72 hours removed from that defeat, against a UCLA team that is coming off a disastrous loss to Minnesota at home on Tuesday. It’s safe to say that practice probably hasn’t been very fun this week for Mick Cronin’s team, and we can expect a big response from what should be a motivated Bruins side in this one.
It goes without saying that Big Ten teams traveling to the west coast this season have experienced issues in the first game of these often two-game road trips. I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday, as Ohio State has been a team that’s struggled mightily away from home this season. The Buckeyes have also experienced major issues with turning the ball over in conference play, ranking at the bottom of the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate. That spells trouble against a UCLA team that makes its money on the defensive end by speeding up opposing offenses, forcing turnovers and turning those turnovers into points on the other end. On the other side, UCLA is certainly due for some positive regression as well, with the Bruins offense sitting outside the top 250 in 2-point and 3-point percentage over the last couple of weeks, despite generating consistently solid looks. Ohio State is also 315th in free throw rate allowed over the last month (Barttorvik), so we can expect the Bruins to still grind out possessions and get to the line if things break down in the halfcourt. All things considered, let’s lay the points with the home team out west.
Check out our full prediction for Ohio State vs UCLA
Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 over Indiana Hoosiers
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to Purdue -4
Having dropped 6 of their last 7 games, the Indiana Hoosiers are certainly on the outside of the bubble looking in. Given how soft the bubble is, their tournament hopes are not completely dead yet, but it’s going to require a massive run to get them on the right side of the bubble – starting on Sunday when they host Purdue in Bloomington. The first game in this great rivalry came down to the wire, but Purdue was ultimately able to secure a win at Mackey Arena. Now, with the Boilermakers heading into this game on a bit of a cold streak, I suspect that most will be looking to back Indiana in a must-win game at home. However, I’m more inclined to back the visitors in this contest.
Fresh off a pair of demoralizing losses to Wisconsin and Michigan State, this Purdue team appears to be pretty vulnerable at the moment. However, Matt Painter’s side does have some clear advantages in this matchup, most notably on offense. Indiana’s defense is outside the top 75 in adjusted efficiency since the start of the calendar year, and Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn should have a big day on Sunday. Kaufman-Renn’s ability to stretch the floor should draw the likes of Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau out of the paint, which should set up easy looks for Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and the rest of the Boilermakers offense. On the other side, Indiana’s offense has a major turnover problem and the Hoosiers are also outside the top 250 in 3-point percentage since the start of conference play. I don’t foresee Indiana having the same level of success as Wisconsin and Michigan State, and the step-down in competition should also do wonders for this Purdue team. Even in a heated rivalry matchup, I’ll lay the points with the road team.
Check out our full prediction for Purdue vs Indiana
