Caleb Wilfinger
March is here and the Pickswise college basketball handicapping team has been in good form in conference play. After another profitable week for our college basketball best bets column, we’re heading into the final weekend of the regular season on a positive note, much like many of the top teams across the country. Let’s keep the momentum going!
While the college hoops market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage. Let’s take a look at my best bets for the Saturday slate, and make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
Kansas Jayhawks -2.5 over Arizona Wildcats (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas -3.5
Bill Self’s squad hardly ever loses multiple games at Allen Fieldhouse in the same season, but he was handed a third home loss last weekend when Texas Tech shot the lights out from beyond the arc en route to a victory as road underdogs. Kansas hasn’t always responded well to adversity, but the Jayhawks acquitted themselves well against Houston on the road earlier this week, covering the number and fighting a gritty and tough Cougars team tooth-and-nail for 40 minutes. That type of effort bodes well heading into Saturday’s contest.
While Kansas doesn’t appear to be a top-20 caliber team at the moment (34th on Barttorvik in February), the Jayhawks have certainly looked the part on multiple occasions at the Phog this season, most recently in a dominant victory over Iowa State on February 3. This spot for Kansas profiles pretty similarly to what we got in that game, especially since Arizona is trending in the wrong direction over the past couple of weeks (4-4 over its last 8 games). The Wildcats are coming off a very troubling performance against their in-state rivals, allowing 100+ points to Arizona State at home earlier this week. Arizona is 76th defensively on the road this season, so I’d expect that Kansas will be able to create matchup issues by using Hunter Dickinson in the two-man game against the Wildcats’ drop coverage defense.
On offense, Arizona has struggled mightily with its shooting beyond the arc, registering a mark of 28% from deep over the past month. The Wildcats generate points at the rim, but they might not see much success here against a Kansas team that is tops in the conference in 2-point defense. At the end of the day, Self is a whopping 31-5 straight up over the last 4 years at Allen Fieldhouse, with 3 of those losses coming this year, all of which were very close games where Kansas experienced poor shooting luck. I’m expecting a full engaged effort from the Jayhawks, so I’ll lay the points in this regular season finale.
Check out our full prediction for Arizona vs Kansas
Missouri Tigers -4.5 over Kentucky Wildcats (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Missouri -5.5
It’s a full Saturday slate in college basketball, which means we have yet another massive matchup in the SEC to break down. And while the second installment of the Iron Bowl on the hardwood will take place on the plains, I’ll be backing the Missouri Tigers at home in a spot I’ve had circled for a few weeks now. The Tigers have been one of the best stories in the nation this season, but Missouri has taken on a bit of water of late, dropping its last 3 road games, including back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma within the last week. However, this team has been a completely different beast at home, and we’ve seen that in convincing victories over the likes of Alabama, Kansas, Ole Miss and Arkansas in Columbia earlier this season. I’m expecting a similar result here against a beleaguered Kentucky team that is limping to the end of a grueling regular season in the SEC.
Missouri has had a couple of major issues in its recent losses, primarily on defensive glass. A lot of that boils down to effort and commitment on each possession, which is not something that should be a concern on Senior Night in front of a crowd that will be out for blood given the opponent. Kentucky is in an interesting position heading into postseason play, as Mark Pope’s team is talented, but very banged up. Lamont Butler doesn’t appear to be 100% at this point, and Jaxson Robinson recently underwent season-ending wrist surgery, which was a major blow to the Wildcats’ backcourt. After getting demolished by Auburn last Saturday, Kentucky did get right with a dominant win over LSU at Rupp Arena, but this is still a team that is 354th in Haslametrics Away From Home metric. Kentucky’s defense has been a major issue against the upper echelon of the SEC as well, as the Wildcats don’t force turnovers or create havoc, in addition to surrendering open jumpers and points at the rim fairly easily (279th in 2-point defense, 321st in 3-point rate allowed). I grabbed an early number with Missouri, and I’d still play the Tigers at the current price.
