Caleb Wilfinger
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The college basketball regular season is in home stretch and Saturday brings us another terrific slate of games, as we’ve got high-profile matchups between AP Top 25 teams and showdowns between top conference foes from the blue bloods to the mid-majors. In all, Saturday should be filled with nonstop action and marquee games from Noon until deep into the night on the east coast.
While the college hoops market is as sharp as its ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage of. Let’s take a look at my best bets for these games on Saturday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
Creighton Blue Jays -3.5 over Marquette Golden Eagles (-105)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Creighton -5.5
Both of these Big East foes are coming off convincing victories at home, and I’ll be going right back to the home team in this matchup. Creighton is playing some of its better basketball of the season of late, and the Blue Jays will be looking to exact some revenge over the Golden Eagles in what is their last home game of the regular season. It could easily be argued that Creighton let that first meeting get away from them back on December 30, as the Blue Jays led at halftime but surrendered 44 second-half points en route to losing 72-67. That should be fresh in the minds of Greg McDermott’s team ahead of this important Big East clash.
Marquette’s backcourt is good enough to give most teams trouble, but the Sean Jones season-ending injury looms large in this one. Jones wreaked havoc in the first meeting, to the tune of 15 points in just 13 minutes, so his absence should be felt in this rematch. There is also something to be said for the improvements that Creighton has made on the defensive side of the ball (23rd in adjusted efficiency at KenPom), and I expect Ryan Kalkbrenner to be a major deterrent for a Golden Eagles team that likes to attack the paint. Ultimately, I trust the Blue Jays to defend their home court. Fading them in Omaha hasn’t been profitable over the years, and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday.
TCU Horned Frogs +7 vs BYU Cougars (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +5.
In what has to be one of the best “buy low/sell high” spots on the board this weekend, I’m going to be targeting the TCU Horned Frogs with my second best bet as road underdogs on Saturday. Typically I’d look to back this BYU team in Provo, as the Cougars are an elite unit at home. However, this is a pretty clear spot to sell high on Mark Pope’s group after they just knocked off the Kansas Jayhawks in Phog Allen Fieldhouse, making it the first time any team has won in that building since January 29, 2022. Bill Self doesn’t lose at home very often and for BYU to get that win in its inaugural season in the Big 12 was a massive result for a program that needed a signature conference win. It doesn’t get any bigger than that.
Conversely, TCU wasn’t so fortunate, dropping a home game to the Baylor Bears where they were largely outplayed from the opening tip. However, the key in that game was Baylor’s terrific shooting night from beyond the arc, as the Bears shot 41% from the three-point line, along with dominating the game on the offensive glass. The Horned Frogs also shot very poorly from all areas of the court, a performance that likely won’t be repeated against a mediocre BYU defensive unit. It’s important to remember that the Cougars were able to knock off Kansas thanks to an awful shooting effort from the Jayhawks, along with the absence of All-American candidate Kevin McCullar. This TCU team should be healthy and hungry in a great spot to back an underdog on Saturday.
