Sam Avellone
This is not a drill, people! We are 1 day away from Selection Sunday, which means March Madness is right around the corner – quite literally. But before we get there, quite a few conference championships and automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament remain to be awarded this weekend. Saturday is packed with marquee matchup after marquee matchup, headlined by Auburn vs Tennessee, Florida vs Alabama, Michigan State vs Wisconsin, Houston vs Arizona and Duke vs Louisville – just to name a few. With so much action, there’s no sense in beating around the bush. Let’s get straight to the picks.
Looking for more action? Check out the Pickswise college basketball predictions for our staff’s thoughts on all of the biggest games of the day.
College basketball Saturday best bets
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators Over 174 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” That’s the motto I’m going with today for this game. I have targeted these high SEC totals all year, so why stop now? Overs are 7-1 in SEC matchups with totals between 170 and 179.5, and the lone loss was Friday night because a shorthanded Kentucky team only scored 70 points against Alabama. With the Tide’s victory, they will advance to play the Florida Gators, who they just met last week. That game played to 80 possessions and each team scored at least 1.18 points per possession while leaving a bit to be desired from the 3-point line. For reference, the Tide and the Gators were just 17/52 combined from deep in that game.
If you’ve read this column or my best bets on Alabama games this year, you know the Tide play with the fastest pace in the country. They are also top 5 in average possession length, so they love to fly up and down the court. Florida doesn’t mind that. The Gators probably prefer it, as they are top 65 in adjusted tempo and top 35 in average possession length. Furthermore, both of these teams are in the 99th percentile or better in pace over their last 5 games.
This total is oddly lower than last week’s game in Tuscaloosa, but there’s no way I would want to be on an Under in this matchup. Alabama and Florida have been elite on the offensive end of late, and if this game plays at an NBA pace around 80 possessions again, it should fly over the total. Playable to 178.5.
Read my full Alabama vs Florida prediction for this SEC Tournament semifinal!
Akron Zips team total Over 81.5 vs Miami (OH) RedHawks (-118)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Like Alabama and Florida, Akron loves to push the pace. They are 12th nationally in adjusted tempo and 20th in average possession length this season, and their love for playing fast hasn’t waned in the last couple weeks. Akron sits in the 90th percentile in pace over its last 5 games (CBB Analytics) and will likely be able to play at that desired pace in the MAC Championship against Miami (OH) on Saturday. Like I mentioned for the Big Sky Championship, Unders are typically profitable in conference title games in college hoops. However, it’s not an angle I blindly bet, and wouldn’t recommend you doing so, either. The matchup on the court matters most to my handicap, and this is not a matchup on which I would want to be holding an Under ticket.
Miami (OH) is unlikely to try to slow Akron down. In fact, the RedHawks like to run themselves, as they are top 70 in adjusted tempo and average possession length with a 91st percentile rating in pace over their last 5 games. These teams met once during the regular season and Akron cruised to a 100-75 victory at home in a game that had about 76 possessions. They scored 1.34 points per possession while shooting close to 68% from inside the arc and 44% beyond it. The Zips also pulled in 12 offensive rebounds. It will be tough to duplicate that type of efficiency from the field, but there should be plenty of possessions in this game for Akron to clear this number again. For reference, the Zips are scoring about 1.31 points per possession over their last 5 games, which means they are playing efficiently enough on the offensive end to clear this number even if this game is played at 65 possessions.
On paper, Miami (OH) has played very well defensively in its last 5 games, sitting in the 94th percentile in defensive rating over that span. However, I believe those results are a bit skewed, as their level of competition in that stretch of games has been nowhere near Akron’s level of offensive ability. In fact, 4 of those 5 recent RedHawk opponents are outside the top 200 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency. I like Akron to put up points in bunches here. Playable to 84.
