Caleb Wilfinger
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We are just a few days out from Selection Sunday, as the 2022-23 college basketball postseason is nearly upon us. From Power 6 conferences to mid-major bid-stealers, we should have great action throughout this weekend’s conference tournament games. I’m 10-3 over my last 13 best bets in this column, so let’s keep it going!
Let’s take a look at my best bets for Saturday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games and today’s NCAAB mega parlay.
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Ohio State Buckeyes +7.5 (-110) vs Purdue Boilermakers
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
Don’t look now, but Ohio State is just 2 wins away from completing one of the most improbably conference tournament runs in recent memory. The Buckeyes entered this week at approximately 80/1 odds at most sportsbooks to capture the Big Ten title following their 13th-place finish in the regular-season standings. But this was a team who had been playing better of late than their record suggested.
The Buckeyes have knocked off Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State in consecutive days to advance to the Big Ten semifinals in large part to their efficiency on both ends. Ohio State is 21st in offensive efficiency and the Buckeyes have been able to control each of their wins in this tournament by playing at a methodical pace and knocking down open 3-pointers. Purdue’s perimeter defense isn’t the strongest, so it’s conceivable that the Buckeyes can continue to use 20+ seconds per possession and generate good looks. On the other end, there is no easy way to slow down Zach Edey in the interior, but if Ohio State can limit Purdue’s guards from the 3-point line, the Buckeyes are certainly live in this game. Look for Ohio State to give an inspired 60-minute effort with its season on the line.
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UAB Blazers ML (+100) over Florida Atlantic Owls
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Jelly Walker deserves to go dancing, and his team is certainly playing like it of late. The diminutive UAB floor general had 32 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists in the Blazers win over North Texas in the C-USA semifinals on Friday, and now he’ll have a chance to knock off the league’s best team to make the NCAA tournament. UAB should feel good in this spot, as Florida Atlantic didn’t inspire much confidence in its semifinal win over Middle Tennessee. Plus, the Blazers have already knocked off the Owls this season on February 2. Walker had only 13 points in that contest, which also bodes well for this red-hot UAB offense.
The Blazers haven’t lost in over a month, averaging over 80 points per game during this 8-game winning streak. UAB will look to control the tempo against an FAU team that plays at a considerably slower pace (outside the top 120 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric). Furthermore, Florida Atlantic can struggle with its transition defense, allowing an effective field goal-percentage of over 50% in transition this season, per Hoop Math. If Walker and the Blazers start off hot, UAB should have the inside track to victory in what should be an exciting contest.
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