Sam Avellone
Happy March to those who celebrate! It’s a great time of year to be a college basketball fan, as there will be plenty of hoops action nonstop over the next 4-5 weeks. But before we get to the postseason, we will embark on the penultimate Saturday of the regular season – which does not disappoint as far as entertainment value goes. There are multiple marquee matchups on the first Saturday of the greatest sports month of the year, headlined by Auburn vs Kentucky, Texas Tech vs Kansas, Alabama vs Tennessee, Texas A&M vs Florida and Arizona vs Iowa State.
We split the midweek best bets, going 3-3 combined on Tuesday and Wednesday. That brings our running total to 26-15 since January 1st, a win rate of 63.4%. With 3 picks ready to go, let’s get into the analysis for Saturday’s college basketball best bets.
Looking for more picks and analysis? Check out the Pickswise college basketball predictions for our thoughts on the biggest games of the day.
College basketball Saturday best bets
Dayton Flyers team total over 76.5 vs Richmond Spiders (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Possessions may be at a premium in this game, but Dayton should be able to score efficiently enough to surpass this number against an inferior Richmond defense. Dayton has one of the better home offenses in the country, boasting a 54% effective field goal percentage on its home court. Things have been clicking for the Flyers on that end of the floor of late, as they occupy the 93rd percentile in offensive rating over their last 5 games while averaging 79 points per game in that span (CBB Analytics). They score in a multitude of ways, whether it be directly off turnovers, by getting to the free throw line, powering to the rim or stroking a 3-point shot – which is a scary proposition for the Spiders.
Richmond is 13th in the Atlantic 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency this season and 343rd nationally in opposing effective field goal percentage since February 1st (Bart Torvik). Furthermore, the Spiders really struggle to defend the perimeter. They are 361st in opposing 3-point rate, and they allow their conference foes to shoot a 3 on nearly half of their shots. This is music to the ears of Malachi Smith, Nate Santos and Javon Bennett, each of whom knocks down at least 37% of his perimeter shots. Don’t forget about Enoch Cheeks, who also has the ability to connect from range. Richmond also really struggles to defend without fouling, which Dayton is built to take advantage of with its top 35 free throw rate and 77.3% free throw percentage in conference. The Flyers are still fighting for a top-4 seed and double-bye in the A-10 Tournament, so I expect a motivated offensive effort from them in their penultimate home game. Playable to 78.5.
Alabama Crimson Tide +3.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-105)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Alabama is exactly the type of team that can pick apart Tennessee’s defense. The Tide lead the SEC in 3-point rate this season, and they have connected on more than 38% of those attempts. The Volunteers defense can be exposed from the perimeter, as they are 347th in 3-point rate allowed this season. They have experienced a dip in per-possession efficiency of late, dropping to the 65th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics). That’s a massive drop in recent efficiency considering the Vols are a 99th percentile defense per their season-long metrics. It’s not like their recent stretch of games were against a string of dominant offenses, either. They played LSU, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Oklahoma in that stretch. Of those teams, Alabama profiles closest to Kentucky, who has beaten Tennessee twice this season. Since February 15th, Tennessee is 84th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 106th in opposing effective field goal percentage, which is a bit shocking to see considering the Vols are typically of the nation’s elites in those metrics.
I expect the Tide to get plenty of good looks in this game, and for them to connect on more than enough to at least cover if not win. They have a drastic depth advantage in this matchup, averaging about 23 more bench points per game than the Vols. Furthermore, they have been one of the most explosive offenses in the country in the last 2 weeks, ranking in the 100th percentile in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage over their last 5 games. Look for Bama to keep it rolling against a defense showing slight signs of potential regression. Playable to +1.5.
Cincinnati Bearcats +14.5 over Houston Cougars (-110)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
We went against Houston last week with a short-handed Iowa State team, and we are going right back to the well this week with Cincinnati. This should be a very low-possession game, as both teams are outside the top 280 in adjusted tempo since February 1st. Because of that, I find catching this large number of points with the Bearcats that much more valuable. Cincinnati has lost just 2 games by more than 14 points this season, and while that doesn’t mean anything for this particular matchup with Houston, the Bearcats are catching the Cougars at the right time. Houston comes into this game following back-to-back games against Iowa State and Texas Tech, and the ‘Coogs have their 2nd meeting with Kansas coming up on Monday. Might they be looking past their former AAC rival?
Houston has struggled with turnovers recently, sitting outside the top 240 in turnover rate over the last 2 weeks. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has been on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Bearcats are top 60 in turnover rate since February 15th, as well as top 65 in turnover rate forced (Bart Torvik). That should be enough for Cincinnati to earn a couple of extra possessions and stay within this number in what could be somewhat of a sleepy spot for Houston.
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