Sam Avellone
Another Saturday, another massive college basketball slate. With March Madness rapidly approaching, every game means that much more as teams jockey for position in the tournament field. As many as 45 teams are currently on the bubble according to ESPN, so the final descent into the postseason figures to be very entertaining for college basketball fans across the country. With so much on the line, there is plenty of value to be had in the betting markets. You just have to find the right spots, and that’s what I hope to help with.
Following a 3-0 sweep on Tuesday’s best bets, I’m on an 11-4 run since the start of the calendar year, and I’m anxious to keep that momentum going on Saturday. Let’s get to the picks, and don’t forget to check Pickswise every day for college basketball predictions for all of the biggest matchups.
College basketball Saturday best bets
Michigan Wolverines -2.5 over Indiana Hoosiers (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Having dropped 6 of their last 7 games, the Hoosiers are on the outside of the bubble looking in. Their tournament hopes are not dead yet, but it’s going to require a massive run to get them on the right side of the bubble – starting on Saturday when they host the Michigan Wolverines. Unfortunately for Indiana, I don’t think this is the best matchup for the Hoosiers, and the media circus surrounding coach Mike Woodson probably doesn’t help. The Wolverines, winners of 3 straight, are propelled by Danny Wolf – a 7-footer that is a menace on the boards and as a shot-blocker while shooting nearly 37% from beyond the arc. His ability to stretch the floor should draw Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau out of the paint, giving Wolf the option to take his defender off the dribble or showcase his talent as a passer and find someone cutting to the rim.
Indiana is in the 5th percentile in defensive rating in its last 5 games, and the Hoosiers have fallen off when it comes to rebounding – sitting in the 13th percentile in defensive rebounds per game (CBB Analytics) in that span. These aren’t good traits to have against a Michigan team that deploys 2 7-footers at the same time, surrounded by knockdown shooters like Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett. The biggest concern when it comes to Michigan’s offense is its propensity to turn the ball over, but that may be somewhat negated against an Indiana defense that ranks 16th in the Big Ten in forced turnover rate. Playable to -3.5.
Alabama team total Over 84.5 vs Arkansas Razorbacks (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Arkansas Razorbacks are riding high, winning 2 straight and 3 of their last 4. Their defense has come to play, out-performing expectations in 4 consecutive games per Haslametrics. However, Alabama is fresh and rested coming into this matchup, having been idle since last Saturday’s win over Georgia. The Crimson Tide lead the SEC in scoring, averaging 90.7 points per conference game, and they play at the fastest tempo in the country – which is key in this matchup. Arkansas’ defensive improvements are noteworthy, but I’m not confident in its ability to hold Alabama under 85 points because of the expected pace in this game. While they don’t play as fast as the Tide, the ‘Hogs do play at an above average pace – so the possessions should be there.
Without their best perimeter defender in Boogie Fland, Arkansas may have a tough time defending the guard-heavy Alabama rotation. The back court quartet of Mark Sears, Aden Holloway, Labaron Philon and Chris Youngblood is loaded with firepower, combining for an average of 50 points per game. All of them are able to knock down perimeter shots, of which they should have plenty against an Arkansas defense that is 236th in 3-point rate allowed. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Alabama live at the free throw line in this game either, as the Tide are top 20 nationally (top 2 in the SEC) in free throw rate while Arkansas is 11th in the SEC in free throw rate allowed. Alabama has surpassed this number in 7 of its 9 conference games, and should increase that number to 8 on Saturday night in Fayetteville. Playable to 86.
Find our college basketball best bets for the most confident picks from the Pickswise handicappers
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arizona Wildcats Over 148.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing
The last time these teams met, points were difficult to come by. Arizona scored just 0.81 points per possession, connecting on fewer than 38% of its two-point attempts while hitting only 3 of its 18 3-point attempts. Texas Tech was better, but not by much. The Red Raiders scored 1.04 points per possession on 42% from inside the arc and 26% beyond it. This time around, I’m expecting better flow from both offenses. Texas Tech and Arizona are in the 83rd percentile or better in offensive rating over their last 5 games, both sitting in the top 3 of the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and effective field-goal percentage. The Red Raiders and the Wildcats also are hitting at least 35% of their perimeter shots in conference play, so expect regression to the mean in that department after they shot 9-for-41 combined in Lubbock last month.
There is a decent tempo dichotomy in this matchup, as Arizona plays with more pace than Texas Tech. The Wildcats weren’t able to play at their desired tempo in the first matchup, but being at home this time around, they should have more success in that department on Saturday night. Texas Tech has been in high-scoring games against teams that play at a similar pace as Arizona in the past, so the Red Raiders are capable of keeping up with the Wildcats if they want to run. Arizona has scored at least 80 points in all but 1 home game this year, and that type of output should help carry us over this total. For what it’s worth, the total in the first matchup closed at 149.5, and despite just 124 total points being scored in that game, there wasn’t much of an adjustment to the line. The total in this matchup is right around that number or even higher depending on what sportsbook you’re looking at. Oddsmakers are expecting points here, and so am I. Playable to 150.5.
Bet like a Caesar with this awesome new customer offer from Caesars, where you can get a welcome boost worth up to $1,000 on Caesars. Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PICKSWISE1000, where you can bet on our Saturday CBB picks.
