Caleb Wilfinger
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The college basketball season is in full swing and Saturday brings us an absolutely fantastic slate, packed to the brim with matchups between AP Top 25 teams and showdowns between top conference foes from the blue bloods to the mid-majors. In all, Saturday should be filled with nonstop action and marquee games from noon until deep into the night on the east coast.
While the college hoops market is as sharp as its ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage of. Let’s take a look at my best bets for these games on Saturday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
Baylor Bears -2.5 over Iowa State Cyclones (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Life in the Big 12 isn’t easy and no team understands that more than the Baylor Bears. The last couple of weeks have been tumultuous to say the least for Scott Drew’s team, having lost 3 of their last 5 games by a combined 9 points. Of those three Baylor losses, two of them came in overtime in which the Bears had leads in both periods, only to ultimately come up short when the final buzzer sounded. End of game variance is a cruel thing and Baylor has experienced it firsthand to almost comically cruel levels in recent games. However, Saturday’s date with Iowa State in Waco does line up nicely from a situational perspective, and I expect this veteran Bears team to take advantage.
Outside of a triple overtime loss to TCU last Saturday, Baylor has been outstanding at home this season, much like most Big 12 teams. Iowa State showed its prowess at home firsthand a week ago in a massive win over Kansas in Ames (a spot where I thought the Cyclones would deliver). However, that was a bit of an outlier shooting performance from Iowa State to say the least, especially from beyond the 3-point arc. The Cyclones shot nearly 50% from deep and knocked down 14 threes, a number they barely cleared in the previous 3 games combined. Considering that some shooting regression is due and this Iowa State offense already has trouble scoring consistently on the road, the Bears’ defense (the weakness of the team) shouldn’t be a net negative at home. Baylor’s top 5 offense (KenPom) should thrive at the McLane Center, so let’s take another Big 12 team to win and cover at home.
St John’s Red Storm +5.5 vs UConn Huskies (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Over in the Big East, even though St. John’s has dropped 4 of 5, the Red Storm are still a team I’ll be looking to buy throughout conference play, particularly when they’re at home. This shouldn’t be a surprise, as the Johnnies have just one loss at home in league play, a defeat that came via a 1-point loss to Marquette on January 20. Rick Pitino’s side likes to get out and run in transition, which bodes well against a UConn team that is outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo per KenPom. If the Red Storm can force turnovers and convert some easy buckets in transition early on, the Madison Square Garden crowd will be raucous and primed for an upset. It doesn’t hurt that St. John’s has a trio of veteran guards plus big man Joel Soriano in the paint to compete with Donovan Clingan around the basket.
On the other side, UConn is certainly worthy of being a #1 seed in this season’s NCAA Tournament, as the defending national champions certainly look scary when fully healthy. The issue for Dan Hurley’s group is that likely won’t be the case in this matchup. Sophomore forward Alex Karaban is questionable with an ankle injury he suffered on Wednesday, and while I do expect him to play in this game, I don’t think he’ll be 100% at all. The reports indicate that his ankle was “badly swollen” on Thursday and he could hardly move down the stretch of Wednesday’s win over Providence. This injury could present a major issue for UConn in terms of knocking down outside shots and stretching the defense. If St. John’s is able to focus more on the Huskies’ interior play, they’ll have a much better shot to keep this thing close and potentially win outright at the Mecca of Basketball.
