Sam Avellone
Just like it always is, Saturday’s college basketball slate is loaded with action. Headlined by a trio of ranked matchups including Tennessee vs Texas A&M, Iowa State vs Houston and Kentucky vs Alabama, college basketball fans will be glued to their devices throughout the day as the postseason approaches. There will be only 2 Saturdays left in the regular season after this one, so be sure to enjoy these last few weeks of college hoops before the madness starts.
Our bad run continued on Wednesday. It’s disappointing, but it’s part of the game and was probably overdue. Nonetheless, we are still 21-11 since January 1 — and you could argue that we’re now due for a good day. Plus, the last 2 Saturdays have been very good to us — so let’s hope that trend continues. Here are my favorite bets for the hoops slate.
Don’t forget to check the Pickswise college basketball predictions for the rest of our staff’s favorite plays of the day.
College basketball Saturday best bets
Iowa State Cyclones +12.5 over Houston Cougars (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I liked Iowa State a lot before the news broke that Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones will not play. Their absences will be felt offensively, but I’m still going to ride with the Cyclones because of Milan Momcilovic. The 6’8″ shooter has the ability to stretch the floor and force the opposing defense to respect his shot, which should open up the lane a bit for his teammates. If left unmarked, Momcilovic can expose the Cougars’ Achilles heel – their perimeter defense. For as good as the Cougars are historically on the defensive end under head coach Kelvin Sampson, they have a tendency of giving up a ton of 3s — and this year is no different. They are 326th nationally in 3-point rate allowed and dead last in conference play.
Possessions are likely to be at a premium in this game given Houston’s infamously-slow pace of play – probably more so now that Gilbert and Jones are out for Iowa State – making the points with the underdog that much more valuable. As the second-best defense in the Big 12, Iowa State boasts plenty of talent on that end of the floor to limit Houston’s offense in a low-possession game. The Cyclones also have the necessary size in the post with Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson to compete with Houston on the boards. Combine those factors with Momcilovic’s ability to stretch the floor and put stress on Houston’s rim-denying defense, and I’ll trust the short-handed Cyclones to keep this game within 3-4 possessions. Playable to +10.
Alabama Crimson Tide -8 over Kentucky Wildcats (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing
Based on head coach Mark Pope’s comments regarding Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson on Friday, I would be surprised to see either of them play in Tuscaloosa on Saturday evening. Without them, I struggle to find reasons to back the Wildcats in this particular spot — as I give the Crimson Tide the motivational edge despite beating a healthy Kentucky team at Rupp Arena earlier this year. Alabama has lost 2 in a row, putting its position as a top-4 seed with a double-bye in the SEC Tournament at risk. The Tide almost need this game in order to maintain that position in the conference standings given the fact that they close the regular season with 3 consecutive games against teams that are currently top 5 in KenPom’s rankings. While those perceived motivational edges don’t guarantee a win or a cover, I am expecting 3-point regression on both ends of the floor — from which Alabama should benefit.
On the defensive end, the Wildcats give up the 12th-most 3-point attempts nationally per road game — yet opponents have only knocked down 28.8% of those shots. Conversely, Alabama shoots 3s at a top-15 rate at home but has made fewer than 30%. Without its best perimeter defender in Butler, look for Kentucky to struggle mightily with containing a 4-headed monster in Alabama’s back court that averages more than 50 points per game. Butler and Robinson’s absences obviously severely hinder Kentucky’s offense, as well, especially in what is expected to be a high-possession game given Alabama’s Division 1-leading pace of play. Those are 2 of Kentucky’s top 3 scorers, and this Wildcat offense already experiences a 10% dip in effective field-goal percentage when it plays away from the friendly confines of Rupp Arena. I like Alabama in a decisive win against what figures to be an undermanned Kentucky squad. Playable to -9.5.
Find my full Kentucky vs Alabama prediction for this massive ranked matchup!
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils Under 155 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing
If you have been betting on college basketball for a while, you know how profitable neutral-site Unders at Madison Square Garden have been over the years. I’m going right back to that well on Saturday night, when Duke meets Illinois. While Illinois plays at a top 20 adjusted tempo per KenPom, the Illini have been fighting a virus over the last couple of weeks on top of Tomislav Ivisic’s bout with mono. As such, the team’s pace of play has dropped from the 94th percentile over the course of the entire season to the 43rd percentile over its last 5 games. For reference, the Illini are averaging just 5.2 fast-break points per game over their last 5 according to CBB Analytics. I doubt those numbers will improve against one of the slowest-paced teams in the country in Duke, which also happens to have a top-5 defense no matter whose metrics you use. Moreover, both Illinois and Duke are very good at limiting second-chance opportunities — which only helps us as Under bettors.
Duke has had just 2 games with a closing total north of 150. Both of those games stayed under. If you want to take it one step further, the Under is 11-5 in Duke games with a closing total of 142.5 or higher. Give me the Under in this one to round out Saturday’s best bets. Playable to 152.5.
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