Sam Avellone
Aren’t college basketball Saturdays the best? With about 150 games spanning from noon ET until well after midnight, there are plenty of betting options all day — headlined by a few massive matchups. Auburn visiting Alabama is obviously the game of the day, not because it is a rivalry game but because it is a rivalry game between the #1 and #2 teams in the country, respectively. There are a few other ranked matchups, as well: Wisconsin vs Purdue, Houston vs Arizona and a rematch of the Mississippi State vs Ole Miss overtime thriller a few weeks ago. Speaking of revenge, Tennessee hopes to get a taste of some of it against Vanderbilt, while Michigan State and Texas hope to put an end to their rough patches.
With so many games to choose from, I’m here to help you pick out a few winners. After Friday’s 2-0 result, we are now 18-5 since January 1 and looking for new winners on Saturday. Let’s get to the analysis, and make sure to check our college basketball picks on all of the biggest games of the day.
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College basketball Saturday best bets
Miami Hurricanes +12.5 over Pitt Panthers (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
I’ll admit, this is not the prettiest best of the weekend. We have hit a couple of best bets fading this Miami team, but now I think it’s time to back the Hurricanes against a Pitt team that has really struggled of late. The Panthers have lost 4 in a row for the 2nd time this season, making it 8 loses in their last 10 games overall. Having failed to surpass 66 points in their last 3 contests, the Panthers averaged just 66.5 points per game in their last 5 — which puts them in the 12th percentile over that span per CBB Analytics. In fact, Pitt is in the 12th percentile or worse in field goal attempts per game, effective field goal percentage, defensive rating and rebounding over its last 5 games. Moreover, Haslametrics ranks the Panthers outside the top 340 in offensive and defensive momentum.
The Hurricanes seem to have figured something out in recent weeks and they have played hard night in and night out regardless of their record. The ‘Canes have won 2 of their last 3, and have not lost by more than 11 points since January 22. Over their last 5 games, they are in the 95th percentile in offensive rating, 97th percentile in effective field-goal percentage and 99th percentile in turnover rate — showing a substantial improvement on that end of the floor. Led by Matthew Cleveland, Miami should find enough success in the midrange and beyond the 3-point line to keep this game close against a flailing Pitt defense that will be without Damian Dunn. For what it’s worth, Pitt is 2-6 ATS as a favorite in 2025 — making Miami one of my best bets of the day. Playable to +10.5.
Missouri Tigers -2.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Missouri has gone from winless in the SEC a year ago to 7-4 and fighting for a first-round bye in the conference tournament this season. What an impressive turnaround for head coach Dennis Gates and the Tigers. While they have lost 2 of their last 3 games by 7 combined points, the Tigers are in the 93rd percentile in effective field-goal percentage over their last 5 games and have a pretty substantial advantage over Georgia on that end of the floor. The Bulldogs are 15th in the SEC in effective field-goal percentage, in addition to 13th in turnover rate. Unfortunately for them, Missouri isn’t the best defense to “get right” against. The Tigers are 3rd in the SEC in opposing scoring, allowing 70.1 points per game against conference opponents. They also force turnovers at the third-highest rate in the league.
The Tigers have been a very good bet on the road in conference play, covering the spread in 4 of 5 games – including outright wins at Mississippi State and Florida. This will be their first time as a favorite away from their home floor, but it’s justified. The Bulldogs are in a slump, losing outright and failing to cover in 5 of their last 7 games. Furthermore, Georgia will be without one of its starting guards in Tyrin Lawrence, who is one of the better perimeter defenders on the team. His absence is likely to be felt against the talented back court of Missouri. Give me the Tigers in this one. Playable to -3.
BYU Cougars -5.5 over Kansas State Wildcats (-115)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Kansas State’s recent run has been impressive. The Wildcats have won 6 straight, including wins over Iowa State, Kansas and Arizona. However, they were a bit fortunate to beat Arizona on Tuesday. The Wildcats were 1-for-19 from the 3-point line and 16-for-26 from the free-throw line while being out-rebounded by 13, yet they still won because Arizona was 2-for-22 from the perimeter and turned the ball over 17 times. I don’t expect Kansas State to be that fortunate in Provo on Saturday night, as playing in the altitude at BYU has historically been difficult for visiting teams. To make matters worse, the Wildcats have very little, if any depth. They have been running basically a 7-man rotation for most of the season, which is not the best recipe for success in altitude against the Cougars – who will run, run and run some more with their top 15 depth.
BYU is consistent offensively, especially at home in the Marriott Center. The Cougars have the 3rd-best home effective field-goal percentage in the country (60.2%), spearheaded by elite perimeter shooting from guards Richie Saunders and Trevin Knell – both of whom make 43% of their 3-point shots on at least 115 attempts. Kansas State will counter with a defense that has held opponents under 28% from deep over the last 3 weeks, but that feels unsustainable against an offense that shoots nearly half of its shots from beyond the arc. Look for BYU to put an end to Kansas State’s run and win this one by margin, capping off my best bets on Saturday’s college hoops card. Playable to -7.
