Sam Avellone
As the calendar flips to February, we are that much closer to what I consider the best sporting event in existence – March Madness. We will be treated to almost 150 college basketball games on Saturday, including 4 intriguing ranked matchups and as many as 7 games in which ranked teams are hitting the road to play unranked conference opponents. Will Auburn remain at the top of the rankings after a visit to Ole Miss? Will Tennessee get embarrassed again by Florida? Can Texas Tech make enough shots to upset Houston at home? Check out our college basketball predictions to see how the Pickswise handicappers project things will shake out on this massive slate.
While there are plenty of options to choose from on Saturdays, I like to narrow my search to the conferences I pay most attention to throughout the week. It’s been a good strategy so far, but last week wasn’t kind to me. North Carolina State looked like it was going to backdoor cover against SMU, but fell just short. We went 1-2 as a result, with a little luck going in our favor in the Houston vs Kansas game. Despite the setback last week, we are still on a 7-2 run since the start of the new year, and I like our chances of getting back on track this week. Let’s get to the picks.
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College basketball Saturday best bets
Florida Gators +4.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-106)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’ll take the bait; this line just seems too high. Not only because Florida beat Tennessee by 30 points earlier this season, but because the Volunteers can’t seem to find any sort of consistent offense in conference play. For reference, they are 10th in the SEC in offensive efficiency and 14th in effective field goal percentage despite having the highest three-point rate in the league. In other words, Tennessee continues to throw up perimeter shots at an insane rate despite them not falling. Could Tennessee’s perimeter shooting regress back to the mean on Saturday? Absolutely. However, Florida has had a full week off to prepare for this game, and it’s not like the Gators had their best offensive performance of the season in their aforementioned 30-point beatdown of the ‘Vols. They shot just 30% from the perimeter and under 44% from inside the arc in that contest.
Florida’s offensive production doesn’t drop-off much on the road. The Gators have almost the same effective field goal percentage whether they play at home or not, and they average just 1 fewer point on the road than at home. Furthermore, Florida has a decent advantage on the boards in this matchup, especially on the offensive end. The Gators not only lead the SEC in offensive rebounding rate, but they are 3rd nationally – grabbing a rebound on greater than 40% of their own missed shots. Tennessee is 12th in the league in offensive rebounding rate allowed, which means the Volunteers are likely to cede a few extra possessions to the Gators in this one. Tennessee may win this game outright, but I can’t lay points with the Volunteers until I see some sort of consistency from their offense. While this is a desperate revenge spot for a reeling ‘Vols squad, I think that situational edge is somewhat negated by the rest advantage for Florida. Give me the points with the Gators. Playable to +3.
Duke Blue Devils -13.5 over North Carolina Tar Heels (-110)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
This is the largest spread in this rivalry series in recent memory, and I still think it’s too short. Whether Jalen Washington plays or not, North Carolina lacks the required size to contend with Duke – the nation’s tallest team – in the paint. Everyone knows how good Cooper Flagg can be with the ball in his hands with the ability to beat defenders off the dribble or step back and hit a shot from beyond the arc, but Flagg also draws so much attention that he often racks up easy assists to a cutting Khaman Maluach or one of Duke’s many perimeter shooters. He figures to be a matchup nightmare for the Tar Heels in this one, especially if coach Hubert Davis elects to keep playing small with 4 guards and a big.
For as good as Duke is offensively on the shoulders of Flagg, the Blue Devils are even better defensively. They are 3rd nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric, holding opponents to 41% inside the arc and 31% beyond it. Moreover, if Maliq Brown makes his return, Jon Scheyer will have 5 of the ACC’s top 10 defenders at his disposal according to Evan Miya’s DBPR, which makes this an even tougher matchup for an already struggling North Carolina offense. Duke pairs its elite defense with elite rebounding, ranking 2nd in the ACC in offensive rebounding rate while limiting opponents to an offensive rebound on just 21.2% of their misses – the best rate in the league. All this to say, points may be at a premium for the Tar Heels in this game, especially if they allow the Blue Devils to control the pace and force them to play in the half court. I realize this Duke team has a heavy contingent of freshmen that wasn’t on the team last year, but this is a pretty decent revenge spot for the Duke program – who lost both games to the Tar Heels last year despite a 27-9 overall record. The Blue Devils should also benefit from an extra day of rest, and didn’t have to play their previous game on the road like North Carolina. All signs point toward the heavy home favorite in the sport’s greatest rivalry. Playable to -15.
Find our college basketball best bets for our most confident picks of the day
Texas A&M Aggies -4.5 over South Carolina Gamecocks (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
The Aggies haven’t won any game outside of Reed Arena by more than 5 points, yet that’s about where the line sits when they travel to Columbia to play a Gamecock team that has yet to win a conference game. In theory, this should be a massive motivational spot for South Carolina, but this offense has been dreadful all season long. Outside of an outlier shooting performance, I don’t know how South Carolina stays within this number. The Aggies have a massive edge in the front court with veteran guards Wade Taylor, Zhuric Phelps and Manny Obaseki leading their offense, while the Gamecocks counter with a backcourt that struggles to score, take care of the ball and defend with any sort of regularity. South Carolina’s biggest edge in most games is its ability to clean up on the glass, but even that rebounding advantage is negated by Texas A&M – who is simply better at controlling the boards. In fact, the Aggies are 1st nationally in offending rebounding rate, and they currently lead the SEC in offensive rebounding rate allowed. The biggest concern I have with backing the Aggies on the road is their inability to make free throws, but the Gamecocks are nearly just as bad as the Aggies in that regard – so that’s probably a wash. Look for the combination of Andersson Garcia, Pharrel Payne and Henry Coleman to do enough defensively to limit the scoring of Collin Murray-Boyles, while the veteran Texas A&M guards propel the Aggies to a win and cover on the road. Playable to -5.
