Sam Avellone
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Conference play is underway in the college basketball landscape, and Saturday’s slate is jam-packed with action from 11:00am ET to midnight. I took the time to comb through the massive college hoops card and found 3 plays that I like, all of which will tip-off before the NFL games later in the evening. Let’s get to the best bets, and don’t forget to check Pickswise daily for college basketball picks in all of the biggest matchups.
College basketball Saturday best bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Florida Gators team total over 82.5 vs Kentucky Wildcats (-108)
I am a believer in this Florida team. I really like their trio of savvy, veteran guards in Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard, who pair nicely with a forward that can stretch the floor and block shots in Thomas Haugh and multiple rim-protecting centers that excel at grabbing offensive rebounds and creating second-chance opportunities. The Gators have scored fewer than 83 points just once this season, which was an 81-point performance at home against Jacksonville in which they connected on just 29.2% of 3-point attempts and 56% of free throws. This team appears to have a solid floor not only because it is highly efficient on the offensive end, but because Florida pairs that elite efficiency with blazing pace. For reference, the Gators are top 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom) and average possession length, in addition to being 99th-percentile in field goals attempted per game and 97th-percentile in offensive rating (CBB Analytics).
I don’t think Mark Pope’s Kentucky Wildcats are going to balk at Florida’s desired pace. The Wildcats are top 25 themselves in average possession length with a 98th-percentile mark in field goal attempts per game, and they are almost equally as efficient as the Gators. However, Kentucky has been exposed defensively multiple times this season. They just allowed 85 points and 1.25 points per possession in a 20-point loss to an Ohio State team without one of its starting guards on the heels of giving up 85 points and 1.16 points per possession in an 8-point home win over Louisville – who also was missing a starter and was in a funk offensively prior to that game. Outside of its win over North Carolina, Florida’s defense has not been tested by an offensive quite as good as Kentucky’s, so I’m hesitant to take the points with the Gators here. However, I trust Florida will at least continue to score like it has all season, even if it does not come away with the win or the cover in Rupp Arena on Saturday. For what it’s worth, half of this Florida rotation was on the team last year when the Gators dropped 84 points in regulation on the road at Kentucky in what ended up being a 94-91 overtime win, so I don’t expect this spot to be too big for them this time around, either. Playable to 84.
Tennessee Volunteers -11.5 over Arkansas Razorbacks (-110)
The environment at Thompson-Boling Arena should be electric when the Arkansas Razorbacks come to Knoxville on Saturday afternoon. The Volunteers are expecting a sell-out crowd for their SEC opener, and you could make the case that it will be the first legitimate road test in a hostile environment for the Razorbacks considering their only other true road game was at Miami against a 4-9 Hurricanes team that just saw its coach resign. This Tennessee team is a completely different beast. The Volunteers are one of the best defensive teams in the country, currently sitting 2nd nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. They hold opponents under 25% from the 3-point line, and they are very good around the hoop – boasting a top 5 block rate and top 10 rim defense (Hoop-explorer). They will also benefit from having 3 of the top 13 defensive players in the country (Evan Miya) on the floor at one time. Each of those defenders will be a direct counter to Arkansas’ biggest offensive threats in Adou Thiero, Boogie Fland and D.J. Wagner. Playable to -13.
Read our full Arkansas vs Tennessee prediction, which includes a 3-star best bet
Nebraska ML over UCLA Bruins (-118)
This screams of a letdown spot for the UCLA Bruins, who have jumped into the top 15 of the AP Poll following its win over Gonzaga on Saturday. In their last 4 games against power conference opponents, UCLA has a 2-point win over Oregon via a banked-in 3 from the top of the key, a 3-point win in a 13-point, 2nd-half comeback over Arizona, a 2-point loss after blowing a 16-point 2nd-half lead against North Carolina and a 3-point win over Gonzaga. In other words, UCLA’s last 4 games against power conference opponents have been highly dramatic and have come down to the wire. Now, they have to travel to an unfamiliar venue to play a Nebraska team that has been excellent as a small home favorite since the start of last season. In fact, the Cornhuskers are 11-0 ATS as home favorites of 10 points or less since the start of the 2023-2024 season. I expect that trend to continue in this spot, and for the dramatic nature of UCLA’s recent games to catch up with the Bruins here. Nebraska wins in an ugly one. Playable to -125 or Nebraska -2.
