Sam Avellone
Another Saturday, another massive college basketball card. Without football to compete against, our favorite sport will be front and center on the networks from noon until midnight on Saturday, headlined by ranked matchups like Ole Miss vs. Missouri, Houston vs. Kansas and Tennessee vs. Auburn in addition to other interesting matchups including Texas A&M vs. Texas, Georgia vs. Florida and UConn vs. Xavier.
Like every week during the heat of the hoops season, I’m back with a few of my favorite bets on the massive Saturday hoops card – and I’m hoping to keep the hot streak alive. We managed another 3-0 sweep on last week’s best bets, stretching the winning streak to 6 in the last 2 installments of this article. Let’s see if we can pick up another sweep this week, shall we?
College basketball Saturday best bets
North Carolina State Wolfpack +3 over SMU Mustangs (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing
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This is a pretty tough spot for SMU. The Mustangs spent all of last week on the road, with games at Virginia on Wednesday and Miami on Saturday. They then travelled all the way back to Dallas just to get blown out by Louisville at home. Now, the Mustangs hit the road again, traveling all the way to eastern North Carolina to play at NC State – a team that has been off for a week and is desperate for a win. In fact, the Wolfpack haven’t done much travelling at all in the last month, as all of their games have been in North Carolina or neighboring Virginia.
NC State doesn’t do much well, but I cannot help but feel the Mustangs are a bit overrated in the market. They are outside the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency and outside the top 150 in defensive efficiency against top 125 opponents (Bart Torvik), and they haven’t beaten anyone notable to this point. Moreover, the Mustangs have under-performed offensive expectations in most of their recent games, outside of their win over a Miami squad that has seemingly quit on the season. I’m anticipating a flat spot for them against an NC State team that is desperate for a win and some confidence ahead of its matchup with Duke on Monday.
Looking for more games? Pickswise has college basketball picks on all of Saturday’s biggest matchups
Houston Cougars -2 over Kansas Jayhawks (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Betting against Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse is inherently risky given how good the Jayhawks typically are at home. Last year’s matchup between Houston and Kansas in Lawrence proves that. The Jayhawks smoked the ‘Coogs in that game, scoring 1.22 points per possession on 78% from 2-point range and 46% from 3 point range. They also out-rebounded Houston by 16. This time around, I’m expecting things to be a bit different – largely due to the fact that Kevin McCullar and Johnny Furphy won’t be suiting up for the Jayhawks. The now-NBA duo combined for 34 points on 13-of-15 shooting in this matchup last year. The Jayhawks will also be without KJ Adams, who separated his shoulder last week. Without Adams on the floor, Kansas’ defense becomes less efficient, forces fewer turnovers and grabs less defensive rebounds.
Kansas’ offense has been up and down in conference play. The Jayhawks struggle with turnovers and cannot consistently knock down perimeter shots, which are not good traits to have against Houston’s tenacious, rim-denying defense that sits atop the Big 12 in opposing turnover rate (8th nationally). As a matter of fact, the Cougars boast the best defense in the country as it pertains to adjusted efficiency (KenPom), effective field-goal percentage and block rate, and they have been particularly good at defending opposing big men in high-low sets, post-ups and cuts to the basket – which will come in handy against Hunter Dickinson. I don’t see another 78% performance from Kansas in this one, especially in what should be a highly motivated spot for Houston after last season’s embarrassing loss in this building. For what it’s worth, I think it’s telling that oddsmakers list Houston as a road favorite in this game despite losing last year at Allen Fieldhouse the way it did as a road favorite. It could also be an indication that Emanuel Sharp plans to return after missing the Utah game with an ankle injury.
Check out the Pickwise college basketball best bets for our most confident picks of the day
Alabama Crimson Tide team total Over 91.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Alabama and LSU are 2 programs going in different directions. The Crimson Tide have been hot offensively in conference play sans 1 game, while the Tigers have been largely unimpressive on both sides of the ball. LSU has been especially bad defensively in league play, sitting 11th or worse out of 16 SEC teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, opposing effective field goal percentage and opposing 3-point percentage against conference opponents. The Tigers have also struggled mightily at taking care of the ball and preventing offensive rebounds against SEC opponents, which will likely lead to more Alabama possessions and easy buckets for the Tide.
Alabama leads the SEC in scoring, averaging 93 points per game against conference opponents while playing at the fastest pace in the country. More recently, Alabama is in the 99th percentile in fast break points per game over its last 5 games, and the Tide have insane depth – averaging 37.2 bench points per game over that span (CBB Analytics). Simply put, I don’t think LSU is going to be able to contain this Alabama offense. The Tigers don’t play at what I would consider a slow pace, and they are currently outside the top 330 in defensive momentum per Haslametrics. I wouldn’t be surprised with another 100+ point performance from the Tide.
