Sam Avellone
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With just 2 months remaining until March Madness, college basketball is moving into the national spotlight – especially now that the football season is winding down. Saturday provides a massive college hoops card with plenty of action from noon until midnight, including multiple ranked matchups like Alabama vs Kentucky, Auburn vs Georgia, Purdue vs Oregon and Ole Miss vs Mississippi State.
With so much action on the hardwood and less playoff football to compete against, I am back with another set of best bets for this loaded Saturday slate. While there was not a best bet article last week, you went a perfect 3-0 if you tailed my Saturday best bets 2 weeks ago – and I’m looking to build on that momentum this weekend.
As we get closer and closer to postseason tournaments, make sure to check Pickswise daily for our college basketball predictions on all the biggest matchups. Let’s get to the picks.
College basketball Saturday best bets
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Kentucky Wildcats Over 178.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Oddsmakers don’t often set totals this high in college basketball, so this one really jumps off the page. However, I believe it is fully justified. Alabama tops the nation in adjusted tempo (KenPom) and possessions per game, and is highly efficient in that approach. Like I mentioned 2 weeks ago, Kentucky isn’t going to shy away from playing fast. In their first season under Mark Pope, the Wildcats are top 30 in possessions per game and adjusted tempo, and much like Alabama, they are extremely efficient in the way they play offensively – ranking in the top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency. Unlike the offensive side of the court, Kentucky is horrid defensively, ranking 15th out of 16 SEC teams in efficiency and 12th in opposing effective field goal percentage. They allow the 2nd-lowest average possession length in the conference, meaning their SEC foes have met little resistance from the Wildcats defensively and generally aren’t forced into bad shots. Furthermore, the Wildcats yield the 2nd-highest opposing free throw rate in the conference, putting their opponents on the line more than 47% of the time. On paper, Alabama is better than Florida on the defensive end. However, the Tide still leave a bit to be desired in that department, giving up an average of 83.75 points per game in 4 games against top 25 offenses. Considering the projected pace of play, elite offensive efficiency, and lack of defensive prowess in this matchup, I love the Over despite the rare, high total. Playable to 180.5.
Read our full Alabama vs Kentucky prediction for Saturday’s SEC showdown
Clemson Tigers ML over Pittsburgh Panthers (+125)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at time of publishing
Pitt was hot early in the season and even to start conference play, but the deeper I delve into its resume, the more I question how good this team really is relative to its market value. Yes, the Panthers started 12-2 – including a 3-0 start to their ACC schedule – but aside from a convincing home win over a healthy West Virginia team, none of their wins have aged particularly well. Their first ACC win was by 5 points at Virginia Tech, who is currently 2-5 in league play, and the Panthers beat cross-country travelers Stanford and Cal at home in consecutive games – the latter has only 1 win in league play. Then, everything came crashing down against Duke and Pitt has yet to recover, losing 3 in a row coming into this matchup with Clemson. Against ACC opponents, the Panthers are struggling to score efficiently, haven’t rebounded well, and have seen a spike in their turnover rate. None of that bodes well for them with an experienced Clemson team coming to town that has won 5 of its last 6 games – all by double digits. The Tigers are very disciplined defensively, as they lead the conference in opposing turnover rate and assist rate. They also excel at limiting transition opportunities and their length and perimeter quickness makes it extremely difficult for opponents to consistently make perimeter shots, which should take away some of the strengths of Pitt’s offense. Clemson coach Brad Brownell has had his way with Jeff Capel and the Pitt program in general, boasting a 12-0 straight up record over the Panthers since January of 2015. I don’t see this particular matchup being any different, as these programs seem to be heading in completely different directions. Playable to +100.
SMU Mustangs -5 over Miami Hurricanes (-110)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at time of publishing
Why overthink it? This Miami team seems to have completely mailed it in on the season. The Hurricanes have lost 13 of their last 14 games – 7 of them by double digits – and Nijel Pack has been out for a month without much indication of when or if he is going to return. Their only wins have come against teams outside KenPom’s top 250, and their defense ranks in the basement of the ACC in efficiency, effective field goal percentage and three-point percentage. Look for SMU to utilize its quickness to get pretty much anything it wants offensively against a Miami defense that has given up at least 80 points in 4 straight games. The Mustangs should also be able to create ample second-chance opportunities in this one, as they boast a top 3 offensive rebounding rate in the ACC. Miami will counter with the 2nd-highest offensive rebounding rate allowed in league play, giving up double-digit offensive rebounds in 4 of 6 conference games. Advantage SMU. Playable to -6.
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