Caleb Wilfinger
March is here and the Pickswise college basketball handicapping team has been in good form in conference play. Championship Week has arrived and with it comes loaded basketball slates, including championship games in the Southern Conference and Sun Belt on Monday. The madness is picking up, so let’s keep the momentum going! While the college hoops market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage. Let’s take a look at my college basketball best bets for the Monday slate, and make sure you also check out our NCAAB picks for the biggest games of the day.
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San Francisco Dons vs Gonzaga Bulldogs Over 155.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Over 156.5
The WCC semifinals will take place in Las Vegas on Monday, and the showcase game will feature the Gonzaga Bulldogs and San Francisco Dons in what should be a fun battle between 2 of the top 3 teams in the conference. The first 2 meetings between these teams won’t tell us everything, but they can be instructive as it relates to this matchup. In those games, Gonzaga tallied 88 points and 95 points respectively and generated consistent success against a San Francisco defense that has struggled mightily defending the paint this season (10th in the WCC in two-point defense).
Those struggles were apparent in both meetings, in which Gonzaga dominated in the paint, shooting over 60% on two-pointers. There’s no reason to expect anything different in this game, especially since the Bulldogs got out to slow starts in both games and still finished with very high point totals against a San Francisco team that doesn’t play all that fast or send its opponents to the line much (247th in opponent free-throw rate).
My handicap for this game is very similar to the first 2 meetings; both defenses are overvalued and we should see plenty of points on Monday. San Francisco’s defensive metrics are solid on paper, but the Dons have benefited from some tremendous shooting luck this season, particularly from behind the arc. I don’t think that’s sustainable, and we’ve already seen Gonzaga’s offense have consistent success against a Dons defense that is extremely poor at defending the rim. That spells trouble against Graham Ike and a Zags frontcourt that combined to shoot over 65% from the field in the 2 meetings combined.
In order to beat Gonzaga, you have to turn the Bulldogs into jump-shooters in their halfcourt offense, or else they’ll consistently burn you on cuts, rolls and post-ups. If the Bulldogs are able to hit open jumpers, they should cruise to at least 85 points in a game that will likely feature plenty of possessions. Not to be outdone, San Francisco’s offense should be able to generate success against a Gonzaga defense that allows plenty of open three-point attempts and struggles to defend in isolation. I’ll go back to the well with the Over one last time in this series.
Read our full San Francisco Dons vs Gonzaga Bulldogs prediction
Furman Paladins -2 over Wofford Terriers (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to Furman -2.5
The Southern Conference tournament has consistently been one of the better mid-major conference tournaments in college basketball each season, and the same has held true this March. The top half of the bracket in particular has featured a couple of excellent games, including an overtime win from the Furman Paladins over the top-seeded Chattanooga Mocs on Sunday. The Paladins are rounding into form at the perfect time after a regular season in which they dealt with injuries and inconsistent play throughout the campaign. Winners of 6 straight, Furman is finally playing like the top-100 team some thought it could be last fall, and I suspect that will continue in the SoCon Championship game against the Wofford Terriers.
Wofford faced a much easier path than the Paladins to reach the final, but the Terriers were dominant in wins over East Tennessee State and VMI to get to the biggest game of their season. In the regular season meetings between these teams, Wofford knocked off Furman back on January 13, but that was during a tumultuous stretch of the season for the Paladins. Furman was able to win on the road against Wofford less than 2 weeks ago, and the Paladins did it behind their excellent backcourt of PJay Smith Jr. and Nick Anderson. That’s a replicable formula for Bob Richey and company in this title game against a Wofford defense that is 234th in adjusted efficiency and is especially poor at defending the three-point line (342nd per Barttorvik).
The Paladins attempt threes at a top-5 rate in the nation and they should be able to generate plenty of good looks against a defense this soft on the perimeter. It’s only a matter of time before the Paladins string together a few stops, and the points should come in abundance from inside and out. I’ll lay the short number with Furman in a spot they’re familiar with.
Read our full Wofford Terriers vs Furman Paladins prediction
