Caleb Wilfinger
March is here and the Pickswise college basketball handicapping team has everything you need to prepare yourself for Selection Sunday, which is just a few days away! Championship Week is in full swing and we’ve got another loaded basketball slate on Friday, including semifinal games in the Big East, Big 12, ACC, Mountain West, Big West and WAC on Friday. The Madness is picking up, so let’s keep the momentum going!
While the college hoops market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few good value bets of which to take advantage on this jam-packed Championship Week slate. Let’s take a look at my college basketball best bets for the Friday card, and make sure you also check out our NCAAB picks for the biggest games of the day.
If you’re on the lookout for a new sportsbook with March Madness on the horizon, we recommend checking out Bet365. Not only do they offer great odds on EVERY college basketball game, but right now new users can click here to sign up and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when they make their first $5 bet!
Florida Gators team total over 84.5 vs Missouri Tigers (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
It would be fair to wonder just how much the Gators truly care about winning the SEC tournament given that they have the inside track to a #1 seed and are clearly one of the most complete teams in the nation. With that said, it’s worth pointing out that Florida has a pretty significant revenge spot on its hands against a Missouri team that went into Gainesville and emerged with a victory back on January 14. As for Missouri, the Tigers put forth a solid effort in their win over Mississippi State on Thursday, but there are plenty of ways this defense can be exploited, particularly in transition and on the glass. With that in mind, even though I do lean toward Florida covering the spread in this matchup, I’m more inclined to back the Gators’ team total over in this contest.
There should be a ton of possessions in this game, which is always a key factor when backing a team total that is pushing 84.5 points. Both teams are top-10 offenses and have no problem generating great looks for their shooters in a halfcourt setting, and I’d expect that to continue on Friday. It’s also worth mentioning that the first meeting generated a total of 165 points, and that was with Florida missing a whopping 10 free throws and shooting below its season average from beyond the three-point arc. The Gators’ offense is an elite unit thanks to its outstanding guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin, which creates plenty of headaches for a Missouri defense that is outside the top 150 in two-point and three-point percentage, and the numbers look even worse away from home.
What makes Florida truly special is its elite frontcourt, featuring a trio of 7-footers that all hold their own on the glass, in addition to creating mismatches with their passing and cutting ability on the offensive end. Given that Missouri struggles mightily on the glass (295th in defensive rebounding rate), Florida should get plenty of second-chance points off missed shots in this one.
Furthermore, Missouri’s offense more than held its own against the Gators defense in the first meeting, and I’d expect the Tigers to put up at least 75 points in a matchup they’re familiar with. A solid output from the Missouri offense will also help out our team total over, as a close game would almost certainly give Florida plenty of opportunities at the free-throw line to potentially clear this number in the final minutes (if necessary). Ultimately, this game should feature plenty of points from start to finish, so let’s back Florida to have a hot day offensively in Nashville.
Read our full Missouri Tigers vs Florida Gators prediction
UConn Huskies -3.5 over Creighton Bluejays (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.
The Big East tournament semifinals will take place on Friday, and the nightcap at Madison Square Garden features a pair of familiar foes in the UConn Huskies and Creighton Bluejays. It’s no secret that UConn has gone through a tumultuous regular season, thanks in large part to injuries, inconsistent play and a whole lot of outside noise. And while that noise around the program might not quiet down anytime soon, the Huskies are pretty clearly playing their best basketball of the season in recent weeks, and it all started with a win over Creighton back on February 11 in Omaha.
On the other side, the Bluejays had a very strong first half of conference play, but they haven’t exactly played anywhere near their best basketball of late. Creighton is extremely fortunate to even be in this game after it fell behind by 17 points in the second half to lowly DePaul on Friday, The Bluejays were even down by 11 with just over 90 seconds remaining before Gregg McDermott’s team pulled off a furious comeback to force overtime. From there, Creighton would need to play another 10 minutes before the Bluejays eventually secured a 4-point victory in double overtime.
UConn didn’t exactly have the same level of stress in its win over Villanova, in which the Huskies used a dominant second-half effort to dispatch the upstart Wildcats. There is a clear discrepancy in effort expended between these teams on Thursday, and I do think that will bleed into Friday’s contest a bit.
UConn has struggled with Creighton in the past, and that’s mainly due to how the Bluejays defend the basket with Ryan Kalkbrenner patrolling the paint. However, the Creighton big man just played a whopping 49 minutes on Friday, so he’ll undoubtedly need a bit more rest than usual given that this game is on such short rest. That’s a clear advantage for a Huskies team that is already so effective and moving and cutting without the basketball.
UConn’s also been shooting it a bit better from beyond the arc of late, thanks to the emergence of Solo Ball and the reinvigoration of Alex Karaban in his final season. Creighton is not a team that excels at defending the arc (114th in three-point percentage allowed since January 1), and the Bluejays are more than happy to play drop coverage and give their opponents open midrange jumpers as well. As long as the Huskies can play the game at their pace and make the open looks that Creighton will give them, they should win and cover the short number in this game.
Read our full UConn Huskies vs Creighton Bluejays prediction
Purdue Boilermakers vs Michigan Wolverines Over 146.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Over 147.5
The Big Ten Tournament action really heats up with the quarterfinal round on Friday, and one of the best games of the day will be the nightcap between the Purdue Boilermakers will take on the Michigan Wolverines. Purdue has been up and down over the course of the last 6 weeks, while the other shoe has finally started to drop for a Michigan that continued to win an unsustainable amount of close games. Purdue appears to be extremely vulnerable at the moment, especially since the Boilermakers didn’t look great in their narrow victory over USC on Thursday. Therefore, I suspect that some will be looking to back Michigan in a game where the Boilermakers might not be a trendy pick. However, even though I would lean toward Purdue as the side in this game, I’m more inclined to look toward the total in this contest.
For all of the skepticism around Purdue at the moment, Matt Painter’s side does have some clear advantages in this matchup, particularly on offense. After all, Michigan has been a below-average two-point percentage defense and three-point percentage defense since the start of the calendar year, and Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn should have a big day on Friday. Kaufman-Renn’s ability to stretch the floor has been essential for this offense all season long, and he should draw Danny Wolf and the Michigan bigs out of the paint, which should set up easier looks for Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and the rest of the Boilermakers offense.
On the other side, Michigan’s offense should certainly see success in this game as well, with the Wolverines sitting inside the top 50 in two-point percentage over the last couple of months. That bodes well against a Purdue defense that is shockingly one of the worst in the nation in two-point percentage defense since January 1 (Barttorvik). With that in mind, we can expect the Wolverines to generate plenty of successful possessions, and even get to the line if things break down in the halfcourt. All things considered, I’ll take the over in a game that should be close throughout, and could ultimately end in a free-throw shooting contest in the final minutes.
Don’t miss our full Purdue Boilermakers vs Michigan Wolverines predictions
