Caleb Wilfinger
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The college basketball season is in full swing and while Saturday is packed to the brim with matchups between AP Top 25 teams and compelling games between conference foes from the blue bloods to the mid-majors, the Friday slate is a lot smaller by comparison. However, there’s still action in the Mountain West, MAC and Ivy League for college hoops fans and bettors to enjoy.
While the college basketball market is as sharp as it has ever been, there are still a few spots that hold some value on Friday. Let’s take a look at my best bet for this smaller slate of games, and make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the biggest games of the day.
Nevada Wolfpack -9.5 over San Jose State Spartans (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Nevada -10.
We’ve gone to the Mountain West a few times in this column over the last week, and I’ll be backing another MWC favorite in a massive spot. Nevada needs as many wins as possible in the home stretch of the season to punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Fortunately for the Wolf Pack, they’ll be taking on a San Jose State team that is just 9-18 on the season and has struggled mightily in conference play, winning just 2 of its 13 Mountain West games. Even on the road, I think we’re getting a slight discount on Nevada in this one given the situation, matchup and talent disparity.
For starters, the Wolf Pack have considerably better season-long metrics, particularly on the defensive end. Steve Alford’s team sits at 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom and Nevada has locked down teams inside the three-point arc, which should continue against a San Jose State offense that is outside the top 160 in adjusted efficiency. What the Spartans do have going for them is they attempt a ton of three-pointers. However, that has not translated into 3-point makes this season, as San Jose State is still 123rd in 3-point percentage since January 1 per Barttorvik. Given that both teams play at a slow tempo, conventional wisdom would favor the underdog, but I can’t see where the scoring is coming from for the hosts in this one.
There’s also the matter of how these teams stack up from a matchup perspective on the other side of the ball, and I just see Nevada as much more capable of scoring in bunches from all areas of the court. The Wolf Pack have a top-70 offense and score efficiently from inside the paint and at the free-throw line. They’ll also benefit from taking on a team that is outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency, three-point defense and effective field goal percentage. Furthermore, San Jose State also is extremely poor at forcing turnovers and cleaning up on the glass, which has been an issue for Nevada’s offense this season. In all, this game is a serious mismatch and I expect a double-digit victory from the favorite here. Let’s back the Wolf Pack to roll in a smash spot on the road.
Read our full Nevada vs San Jose State predictions
