Sam Avellone
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Since Monday’s opening slate of college basketball, there have not been many notable games on the hardwood. However, that will change on Friday of opening week. We will be treated to a fantastic slate of hoops consisting of multiple noteworthy matchups across the power conference and mid-major levels including North Carolina vs Kansas, Furman vs Belmont and New Mexico vs UCLA. While there are so many options to choose from, I narrowed it down to my 2 college basketball best bets for today that I feel are worthy of playing and will analyze each pick for you. Let’s dive in, while you can also check out our college basketball picks and NCAAB predictions for tonight and throughout the season!
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Kansas Jayhawks Over 158.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is a massive blue-blood matchup between the Tar Heels and the Jayhawks that should see plenty of points. The biggest roster change of note in this matchup is the departure of UNC big man Armando Bacot. He was one of the best rim protectors and rebounders in the country, and his void will be felt against Hunter Dickinson – who should get plenty of high-quality shots at and around the rim with his beautiful hook shot. Jalen Washington takes over in the post for North Carolina in place of Bacot. While he has shown an innate ability to block shots, he does not play with control on the defensive end and averages close to 6 fouls committed per 40 minutes in his college career. Without Bacot, the Tar Heels will have a guard-driven offense even more so than it did last year. RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble love to get downhill, so expect the Heels to push the pace not only against Kansas but throughout the season.
Despite shooting just 53 shots against Howard in Game 1, I don’t think Kansas will mind running with North Carolina. The Jayhawks return one of the most experienced facilitators in the country in Dajuan Harris, who was top 75 in assist-to-turnover ratio last season. Joining him in the back court is South Dakota State transfer Zeke Mayo, Alabama transfer Rylan Griffin, Northern Illinois transfer David Coit and Wisconsin transfer AJ Storr – each of whom can fill it up at any moment. Mayo averaged more than 18 points in his final two seasons for the Jackrabbits and shot close to 40% from the three-point line last year. Griffin also shot close to 40% from deep, while Coit averaged close to 21 points per game and Storr averaged almost 17. I haven’t even mentioned KJ Adams yet, the Kansas forward who averaged 12.6 points per game last season and is known for his explosive offense in the paint. With so much firepower in this lineup, there should be points galore if this game is played anywhere near North Carolina’s desired pace. Playable to 160.
Read our full North Carolina vs Kansas prediction
Santa Clara Broncos -4.5 vs Arizona State Sun Devils (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Outside of Shawn Phillips, Arizona State does not have much interior size to oppose Santa Clara’s Christoph Tilly. To make matters worse, Phillips averages more than 7 fouls committed per 40 minutes in his collegiate career. Tilly absolutely can use this to his advantage, as he is one of the nation’s best at drawing fouls. Tilly along with Adama-Alpha Bal, Carlos Stewart and Tyeree Bryan should have a massive advantage offensively in this matchup against an Arizona State squad that has been outside the top 275 in effective field goal percentage for the last three seasons and hasn’t made more than 34% of its three-point attempts since the 2018-2019 season.
The Sun Devils’ strength is their defense, which was in the top 65 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency last year and in the top 35 the two years prior. The issue is that they give up a high rate of perimeter shots, which the Broncos will be happy to take. Bal made almost 43% of his three-point attempts last season, while Stewart made more than 40% of his perimeter shots for Santa Clara the year before last and Bryan is a career 41% three-point shooter. The Sun Devils really struggle from the free-throw line, and they gave up 16 offensive rebounds to Idaho State on Monday. It’s very hard to cover spreads with those traits, especially when your opponent is an excellent offensive rebounding team like Santa Clara. Playable to -6.
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