Ricky Dimon
Neither one of these teams is expected to go all the way in the NBA playoffs, but from a matchup perspective this series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers is must-watch material. They are the #4 and #5 seeds in the Western Conference, respectively, and finished the regular seraon with identical 50-32 records. Game 1 is set for Saturday afternoon in the Mile High City.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 3:30 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Clippers vs Nuggets prediction.
Clippers ML (+128)
Under 223.5 (-110)
Norman Powell Over 2.5 3-pointers made (+100)
Parlay odds: +700
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Clippers shooting guard Norman Powell draining his fair share of 3s would obviously work well with an upset win by the visitors. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also hammering the under. But even if Powell comes through, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Clippers ML (+120)
The Clippers may be the underdog in this game and this series since they are the lower-seeded team and don’t have home-court advantage, but what they do have is all of the momentum. With both Kawhi Leonard and James Harden both armed with a rare clean bill of health, head coach Tyronn Lue’s club is finally making the most of its immense talent. Los Angeles has won 8 games in a row, including what might as well have been a playoff situation in the final game of the regular season in which the winner would avoid the play-in tournament. The Nuggets, on the other hand, are a mess. They fired head coach Mike Malone earlier this month, less than 2 full years removed from winning the NBA title. Denver is 13-13 in its last 26 contests and 3-4 in its last 7. Don’t be surprised if the visitors win this one outright.
Under 223.5 (-110)
It’s no secret as to how the Clippers must play in order to maximize their chances of winning. They want to slow things down and make it a relatively low-scoring slog. As such, I am happy to parlay Los Angeles on the money line with the under. The Clippers averaged 112.9 points per game during the regular season (fourth fewest in the Western Conference) while ranking second in the West and fourth in the entire NBA in points per game allowed (108.2). They have limited 5 of their last 10 opponents to 100 points or fewer. The Nuggets generally run up the score to a greater extent than the Clips, but keep in mind that Jamal Murray – who recently returned from injury – has gone cold. The Kentucky product has scored 17, 15 and 16 points in his last 3 outings while going a combined 17-for-43 from the floor. Two of the 4 H2H regular-season encounters stayed under 223.5 and each of those 2 did so with plenty of room to spare (213 and 218 points). Let’s go with another under.
Norman Powell Over 2.5 3-pointers made (+100)
Powell has been an awesome compliment to Leonard and Harden this season, contributing 21.8 ppg on 48.4 percent shooting from the field – highlighted by a 41.8 percent clip from the land of plenty. He has sunk at lest 3 three triples in 4 of his last 10 games, including 1 outing with 4 and another with 5. The veteran guard has also thrived beyond the 3-point arc against Denver. In 4 regular-season matchups he went 7-for-11, 5-for-8, 3-for-10 and 4-10 from distance. Giving up 3s is nothing new for the Nuggets, who are allowing 14.1 of them per game (11th most league wide). Opponents are shooting 36.5 percent on their 3s, good for the eighth-best mark in the association.
