Clevta’s Bills vs Rams best bet: Over 52 points (-115)
Over 52 available at time of publishing. Playable up to 53.
I typically am not a fan of taking such high totals, especially in the opener, but I think both teams have some holes on the defensive side of the ball and both offenses will likely throw it at a high rate. In fact, these teams last season threw the ball at the highest rate (Buffalo) and 7th-highest (LA Rams) rates in the NFL in neutral-game situations. Last season the Bills played three games against two other teams (KC twice and TB) that finished in the top 7 in neutral pass rate and the total points scored in those games reached 58, 60 and 78. Even though the Bills had to replace offensive coordinator Brian Daboll with Ken Dorsey, there is no reason to believe they will throw it less often.
The Bills finished 3rd in the NFL last season in scoring average at 28.4 points per game. However, as we know, Buffalo is not an easy place to play and some of that scoring was depressed by windy or bad weather environments. In fact, in the last two seasons when the Bills have played on the road in a warm environment (70 degrees+) or in a dome/retractable roof stadium like they will in LA, they have averaged 32 points per game and have scored at least 27 in all nine of those games. They have averaged 31.3 ppg and have scored at least 30 in the four dome/retractable roof games the last two seasons. Even when they struggled at Jacksonville last year, losing 9-6, the weather was only in the 50s and there were 20 mph winds.
The Bills’ defense finished No. 1 in the NFL in multiple categories last year, including DVOA, yards per play and EPA per play allowed. However, they piled up these good stats mainly when they faced the weak offenses in their schedule. Whenever they matched up with a good offense, they got gashed. In seven games against the best offenses they faced — KC twice, Tennessee, Indy, TB, NE twice (excluding the wind game), the Bills allowed 29.7 points per game and went 3-4. In fact, when looking at just opponent points per game scored on the season, the Bills faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. Now they will have to face another top offense in the Rams and will have to do so without one of the best CBs in the NFL in Tre’Davious White. He is consistently one of the best coverage corners in the league and finished top 15 among NFL CBs in completion percentage allowed and top 10 in QB rating allowed while in coverage last season. The Bills will have to face Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson and company with first-round rookie Kaiir Elam making his debut. The Bills; other starting CB from last season, Levi Wallace, is now with the Steelers. As such, they will be relying on Elam and Dane Jackson outside with Taron Johnson in the slot. That is is a very underwhelming group that will be facing this explosive Rams offense. Robinson was signed this offseason after languishing for years with bad QB play in Chicago and Kupp is looking to build off his record-setting 2022. Kupp finished last season with video game-like numbers (145 receptions, 1,947 yards, 16 TDs).
I am a little worried about the Rams’ offensive line after turning over two starting positions from last year’s Super Bowl. Guard Austin Corbett left for Carolina, while All-Pro LT Andrew Whitworth retired. Corbett was adequate, finishing 41st among all NFL guards in pass-blocking grade; Whitworth finished as PFFs top-rated pass-blocking tackle last season. New LT Joseph Noteboom has been solid as a backup to Whitworth when asked to fill in the past. In fact, he allowed only one pressure and no sacks when he was thrust into starting duty in the divisional-round win over the Bucs last season. Taking over for Corbett will be Coleman Shelton, a 5th-year undrafted free agent out of Washington. Coleman has played 238 snaps in his career but only 30 total snaps at guard. That is a concern, but the good news for the Rams is that the Bills defensive line is weakest in the interior. DTs Ed Oliver and Daquon Jones, newly acquired from Carolina, are solid but unspectacular.
The Rams’ defense impressed last season, ranking 5th best in the NFL in DVOA. However, their top-heavy roster lost multiple pieces from that defense. Gone are three starters from the Super Bowl in DE Von Miller, No. 2 CB Darious Williams and safety Eric Weddle. They really only added one starter in veteran LB Bobby Wagner. Wagner is still a solid LB, but his play dipped significantly last season and he remains weak in coverage. Replacing Miller’s 8 sacks in just 12 games from last season will be significant and the Rams did not add any pass rush help in the offseason at all. In fact, they also lost key pass rush specialist Ogbo Okoronkwo to free agency. In losing Williams, the Rams continue to try and find late round CB help to surround star Jalen Ramsey. With Williams gone, the Rams will not be bringing back a CB outside of Ramsey who finished in the top 65 in the NFL in PFF coverage grade. The Bills will be able to spread the field and attack anyone not named Ramsey in the secondary with their bevy of WRs.
Similar to the Bills, the Rams’ defense feasted off of easier competition. Their schedule of opposing offenses ranked 20th in the NFL. The Rams played nine games against teams that finished in the top 10 in offensive EPA and allowed an average of 25.9 points in those games. Even then, the Rams caught breaks in that they faced the Bucs in the playoffs without Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs while also facing a Cardinals offense late in the season and again in the playoffs without DeAndre Hopkins. Against top-10 offenses at full strength, the Rams were scored on a lot. The Packers, Niners and Cardinals (early in the season with Hopkins) were all able to score at least 31 points in those matchups.
Offensively, the Bills are loaded at wide receiver with Stefon Diggs as the main cog but also with the expectation that 3rd-year man Gabriel Davis will really step up his production in 2022. He is looking to build off of that spectacular 8-reception, 201-yard, 4 TD game against the Chiefs in the divisional round of last season’s playoffs. With his emergence in snaps over a veteran like Emmanuel Sanders from a year ago, I expect Allen to throw even more down the field — leading to more explosive pass plays. Veteran Jameson Crowder takes over for Cole Beasley in the slot and is also a much better player after the catch (5.3 vs 4.6 yac per reception) and could also lead to bigger plays. Shop around and you will find 52, but this play is good up to 53.
Be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams predictions
Clevta’s Bills vs Rams best prop bet: Josh Allen over 35.5 pass attempts (-125)
Josh Allen over 35.5 pass attempts available with DraftKings at time of publishing. Playable up to 37.
The Bills were No. 1 in the NFL in neutral-game pass rate last season and in if you assume like I do that this game should be competitive then Allen will likely be slinging it all over the field. In the Bills’ 5 games (excluding the aberration that was the wind-marred contest against the Patriots) last season that ended in a single-digit margin. Allen averaged 47.2 pass attempts and easily cleared 35.5 in all of them. For the season, Allen averaged more than 37 attempts per game, so this prop feels very light. I would be ok taking this over up to 37 pass attempts.
Looking for more Bills vs Rams player props? Bobby Stanley, aka Prop Holliday, has 3 picks for the game
Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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