At 8-8, the Pittsburgh Steelers have not been eliminated from playoff contention yet. They have won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games as their second-half surge has launched them to the bubble of the playoffs. Cleveland has the opportunity to play spoiler on Sunday afternoon, and our expert has 2 picks, including a best bet, for this divisional battle.
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NFL Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers expert predictions
The Steelers have a shot at making the playoffs, but it starts with winning this matchup. Unlike Pittsburgh, the Browns have nothing to play for since they have been eliminated from playoff contention. But as division rivals, can Cleveland spoil Pittsburgh’s chances at a last-minute playoff push?
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point spread: Browns +2.5, Steelers -2.5
Total points over/under: 40.5 points
Money line odds: Browns +120, Steelers -140
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Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers expert picks
We have two great NFL picks for the game between the Browns and Steelers.
Browns vs Steelers point spread pick: Browns +2.5 (-110)
Teams that need to win in the final 2 weeks of a season versus teams out of the playoffs have gone 57-95 (37% ATS) in my database. Teams needing to win have their lines artificially inflated because of the perception that teams that need it the most should win and cover. And tons of pressure for the team that needs to win and get in against a team that can play totally loose. The Browns fit this trend this week. I don’t have these teams as even as this number suggests. We saw how well a Deshaun Watson led offense can perform in the 2nd half of the game against a good Washington defense. We also saw how hard the Browns played last week, even when out of playoff contention. Motivation against their biggest rival with a shot to spoil their playoff hopes is not an issue at all. They also don’t have a first-round pick so organizationally losing on purpose is not an issue.
Considering that they were trailing for most of their Week 16 game against the Raiders at home as 2.5-point favorites, it’s hard for me to suggest that this 2.5-point line makes sense against a better team in the Browns. Also, consider who the Steelers defense has faced recently. It’s been Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan, Tyler Huntley twice, Sam Darnold and Derek Carr who was just benched for the season. Although Watson isn’t playing like his elite self right now, he has improved as the season has progressed and is the best QB the Steelers will have faced in a long time. I think the 2.5 points are very valuable in a low total game like this and the Steelers winning but not covering is on the table as well. In a Week 18 game, I wouldn’t put it past either team to try and go for two and the win if put in that spot which makes +2.5 even more valuable.
Be sure to check out our full Browns vs Steelers predictions
Browns vs Steelers over/under totals pick: Under 40.5 (-110)
In a total between these two teams, the number cannot be low enough. These are two run-heavy teams with above-average defenses that create very low-scoring games. The under is 6-0 in Cleveland’s last 6 games with an average total of 31.83 points. Only 1 of their last 6 games has surpassed 40 points and that’s a similar theme in Pittsburgh’s last few weeks. The under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games, with the average total being 31.4 points in those 5 games, with only 1 game reaching 40 points. Neither offense has an exceptional passing attack, as Deshaun Watson appears to be a shell of himself and Kenny Pickett is still mediocre at best. That forces both teams to use the ground for the majority of their offensive production, but that strategy might not work on Sunday as Pittsburgh holds one of the best run defenses in football. I envision a score around 20-17, so the under is the pick.
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