Caleb Wilfinger
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This will be DeShaun Watson’s first game in nearly two years, and the fact that it comes against his former team makes it all the more difficult to handicap. We don’t know what we’re going to expect in this one, but the Browns are coming off a nice win over Tampa Bay. Momentum might be in Cleveland’s favor, especially seeing how Houston has played in recent weeks. Our expert has odds and predictions for this intriguing AFC matchup, so let’s break it all down.
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NFL Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans expert predictions
This is undoubtedly the biggest game of the Texans season at this point, which presents an interesting challenge when handicapping this spread. Cleveland is the stronger team on both sides of the ball, but Watson can be expected to be rusty in this game, which could lead to problems for the Browns offense. Our expert is confident that Houston will show up in this spot, so let’s get into our predictions.
Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Browns -7, Texans +7
Total Points Over/Under: 46.5 points
Money Line Odds: Browns -335, Texans +270
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Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this clash between the Browns and Texans.
Browns vs Texans point spread pick: Texans +7 (-110)
First of all, this is the Super Bowl for Houston. Obviously, Deshaun Watson will dominate the narrative this week, and rightfully so, but personally I see a lot of variance with this situation. Sunday will be Watson’s first professional football game in 700 days, having last played in the final week of the 2020 regular season with the Texans. The ceiling is much higher than Jacoby Brissett, but early in his tenure, I also believe the floor is much lower while Watson rounds into game form. If you believe he will hit the ground running and show no rust at all, then this bet isn’t for you. The game plan here seems relatively simple for Kevin Stefanski, get the run game going early and try to get Watson comfortable.
Houston’s defense is 25th in schedule-adjusted efficiency this season and 30th in DVOA against the rush, however, Cleveland is ranked 27th and 31st in those same categories, so it’s fair to say Kyle Allen will show much better in his 2nd start, and Dameon Pierce could also be in store for a big game. Since 2017 when the Browns went winless, there’s only been 1 other team in the NFL that has posted fewer than 2 wins in the regular season (2020 Jaguars). Houston currently has just 1 win (and 1 tie) to their name with only 6 games left on their schedule, and while I’m not advocating playing the money line in this specific spot, I would not be surprised if Houston stole another win down the stretch, especially considering the record number of 1-score games in the league this season. With all the craziness that’s happened already would it really surprise you if Houston covered or won this game outright? I didn’t think so. Not so crazy anymore, I guess.
Be sure to check out our full Browns vs Texans predictions
Browns vs Texans Over/Under totals pick: Over 46.5 (-110)
There are questions at quarterback for both teams, but for different reasons. For Houston, it’s a matter of talent. The tank job is in full effect for Kyle Allen, who can probably even win a game or two down the stretch and secure the No. 1 pick for the Texans in the upcoming draft. For Cleveland, it’s all about rust. Deshaun Watson hasn’t played a professional football game in nearly 2 years, so it’s really hard to pinpoint how sharp and effective he will be in this game despite the fact that he’s facing one of the worst defenses in the league. I think Houston’s will come out very aggressive here and try to carry over some of the momentum from the second half last week where they scored a pair of touchdowns and made Allen look serviceable thanks to a couple of explosive plays from Jordan Akins and Brandin Cooks.
Dameon Pierce has only carried the ball 15 times in the last 2 games, mostly because of the game script, but also because of effectiveness. He should get some better run in this game against a Browns unit ranked 31st in DVOA against the rush. Pierce has the 6th most yards after contact in the NFL this season (616) and 7th most yards per rush after first contact (3.42). If Houston’s offense can get off on the front foot and prevent Watson from easing into the game with Cleveland’s rushing attack, I can see this one flying over the total.
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