Phil Agius
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The Cleveland Browns looked a team on the rise when they won on the road at Pittsburgh in the playoffs of the Covid-affected 2020 season, but their last 2 seasons have been frustrating. Baker Mayfield’s shoulder injury ruined their chances in 2021 and the 11-game suspension handed to new QB Deshaun Watson meant last year was always going to be an uphill struggle.
The Browns have importantly retooled their coaching staff, bringing in Jim Schwartz to run their defense and Bubba Ventrone on special teams, and they made some eye-catching free-agency moves and trades that suggest the team is determined to return to the playoffs. That won’t be easy in a brutal division but it will be hugely disappointing if this loaded roster is not at least in the mix in the AFC playoff race.
Let’s examine the odds and best bets to be made on the Cleveland Browns this season.
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Cleveland Browns breakdown
2022 record: 7-10
2022 ATS record: 8-9
2022 O/U record: 8-8-1
Key players in: Dalvin Tomlinson (DT), Juan Thornhill (S), Za’Darius Smith (DE), Jordan Akins (TE), Elijah Moore (WR), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (DE)
Key players out: Jacoby Brissett (QB), Jadeveon Clowney (DE), Kareem Hunt (RB), Greedy Williams (CB)
2023 NFL Draft class: Cedric Tillman (WR), Siaki Ika (DT), Dawand Jones (OT), Isaiah McGuire (DE), Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB), Cameron Mitchell (CB), Luke Wypler (C).
Head over to the Pickswise NFL futures guide for odds and predictions on various betting markets
Cleveland Browns 2023 NFL season odds
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cleveland Browns Super Bowl odds
The Browns are +3500 to win Super Bowl LVIII. That means they are expected to be on the fringes of playoff contention, tied for 15th place in the outright odds.
Cleveland Browns AFC Championship odds
Cleveland comes in 9th in the AFC betting with +1800 odds to make the Super Bowl, but well clear of the 10th-ranked team, which is Denver at +3000.
Cleveland Browns AFC North odds
At +380, the Browns are listed 3rd in the AFC North market. The Bengals favorites at +150 and the Ravens come in next at +235 with the Steelers at +450.
Cleveland Browns win total odds
The Browns have won 11, 8 and 7 games in the last 3 seasons, and this season’s regular-season win total has been set at 9.5 games, with the over having +115 odds and the under coming in at -135. They are +600 to finish with exactly 10 wins and +700 for 11. It is also +700 that they repeat last year’s total of 7 regular-season wins.
Cleveland Browns 2023 schedule
Week 1: vs Cincinnati Bengals
Week 2: at Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday)
Week 3: vs Tennessee Titans
Week 4: vs Baltimore Ravens
Week 5: BYE
Week 6: vs San Francisco 49ers
Week 7: at Indianapolis Colts
Week 8: at Seattle Seahawks
Week 9: vs Arizona Cardinals
Week 10: at Baltimore Ravens
Week 11: vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 12: at Denver Broncos
Week 13: at Los Angeles Rams
Week 14: vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 15: vs Chicago Bears
Week 16: at Houston Texans
Week 17: vs New York Jets (Thursday)
Week 18: at Cincinnati Bengals
We’ll have NFL picks for EVERY matchup of the 2023 season
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Cleveland Browns 2022 season recap
The Browns’ 2022 campaign was pretty much over before it began, specifically when a surmountable 6-game suspension for QB Deshaun Watson was almost doubled to 11 games. We then saw a two-part season in which the Browns were led by a back-up QB for 11 games and a rusty quarterback for the final 6 as Watson returned after a 700-day absence from NFL action. Brissett was far from the problem in the early part of the season, though, as defensive breakdowns and poor special teams play left the team further away than they should have been by the time Watson came back. The season was epitomized by a stunning 31-30 loss to the Jets, in which the Browns led 30-17 with 1:55 left before a series of bust coverages and special teams blunders handed the Jets a great escape. An impressive 32-13 win over the Bengals in Week 8 showed what the Browns could do when they cut out the errors, but it came during a 1-6 stretch that killed their season. Although Watson went 3-3 in his 6 games and was rusty for sure, some horrendous playing conditions in December also made his stats look worse than they might have been.
Read our AFC Championship predictions and best bets, including a +1500 longshot
Cleveland Browns 2023 NFL season predictions
The Browns’ defensive and special teams coordinators have been replaced and the roster looks all-round stronger than it was last year. The biggest upgrade is where it was most needed, on the defensive line, where Myles Garrett is joined by Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson in what should be an attacking unit under Schwartz. The secondary — already blessed with classy corners in Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson Jr. — will be happier playing more man coverage this year, and it has been bolstered by the arrival of Super Bowl-winning safety Juan Thornhill from the Chiefs. Offensively, the Browns swooped to add shifty receiver Elijah Moore — who looks set for a breakout season after falling out with the Jets staff — and rookie Cedric Tillman looks one to watch.
Here are my Browns-related predictions for the upcoming season.
Best bet: Cleveland Browns over 9.5 wins (+115)
Little has gone right for the Browns over the last 2 years, but that has resulted in a modest expected wins total that they should be capable of passing. Their roster has improved to the point that they are going to be parting ways with some very good players on cut-down day and while the offense will be more pass-oriented this season, defenses that forget about the ground game will have Nick Chubb to answer to. The first 5 games on the schedule will provide a real test, with the Bengals, Ravens and 49ers all among their opponents before an early bye, but the middle-to-late section of the schedule offers little to worry about, with only the Jaguars and Ravens notable opponents until a tricky finish against the Jets and Bengals. Cleveland can afford to soak up 7 losses and still go over 9.5 wins; that looks a bet worth making.
Cleveland Browns season record prediction: 11-6
The talent is there for the Browns to get into double-figure wins relatively comfortably. They could still get there even if they are only, say, 2-3 at their bye. The pressure would certainly be on if they are worse off at that point, but unless things unravel the new-look Browns look capable of having their say in the AFC playoff race.
Find out which players we are targeting for our NFL MVP best bets
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