Matthew Lowrimore
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Best Bet – Cleveland Browns Over 9 wins (-140)
Worst Bet – Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl (+1200)
The Browns are heading into the new season as probably the league’s most improved team. If you remember, in 2016 this team went 1-15. It was even worse in 2017, when they went 0-16 under the leadership of Hue Jackson. Then comes 2018. The Browns drafted Baker Mayfield and the hype surrounded them immediately. They showed a lot of improvement, going 7-8-1. The excitement is even more intense now that Odell Beckham Jr. has brought his talents to the city of Cleveland.
Beckham Jr. is not the only player to get excited about. The Browns also added Kareem Hunt this offseason, as well as pass-rusher Olivier Vernon. Of course, we know Hunt had quite a few off the field issues and therefore he will be suspended for the first 8 games of the season. While he is out, Nick Chubb will be the undisputed featured running back. Chubb is entering his sophomore season after a very successful rookie campaign. He racked up 996 yards on the ground and added 8 touchdowns. Chubb has proved he can handle a heavy workload and should be an excellent piece to this Browns offense. Once Hunt gets back, they’ll form a dangerous tandem.
Beckham Jr. will reunite with former LSU teammate Jarvis Landry in what is suddenly a stacked Cleveland receiving corp. This could be a deadly combo if they’re both used correctly, and only time will tell how this offense will mesh. Beckham Jr. is another player that has been criticized for some of his off the field antics, so it will be interesting to see how the Browns’ front office handles anything that may arise.
The Browns’ defense is interesting as well, as they added cornerback Greedy Williams with their first pick in the most recent draft. Williams will certainly add depth to the secondary, an area they were near the bottom of last season. Pair that with all the starters returning with more experience, and you have a defense that looks promising.
Lastly there is Mayfield. He had a successful rookie season and his game only looks like it will improve this year. Mayfield will have a lot more pressure on his back now that the Browns look like a contender in the division. If he can replicate his stats from last year and cut down on a few of his turnovers without letting the pressure get to him, the Browns will be a team to fear for the near future.
Cleveland Browns Win Total: O/U 9 Wins
The Browns ended last year with 7 wins, the most by the team since the 2014 season. Oddsmakers have their expected total set at 9 wins, meaning the Browns would have to have their first winning season since 2007 to break even on this prop. That might sound tough on the surface, but I do think they will improve on their 2018 season, and 9 wins should be easily attainable. Their schedule is tough, but with all the talent they have accumulated, getting at least a push seems likely.
I would lean towards the over. I feel they will get at least 9 wins.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes -140, No +110
The Browns narrowly missed the playoffs last season. With a retooled offense, they will look to take that next step and make the postseason. Keep in mind, we are talking about a franchise that has had only two winnings season since the year 2002. Obviously it is a much different time with different players, but I do not think I can back a franchise that is known for having some of the worst luck ever.
I would lean toward the ‘No’ with this prop. Until the Browns can prove they are worthy of making the postseason, I would be inclined to fade them in this spot. The pressure might prove too much to overcome late in the season if they’re making a push.
Odds to win AFC North: +125
For the first time in forever, the Browns are favored to win their division. Yes, you read that right, the Browns are a legit threat to win the AFC North. It makes me wonder if this is just because they added Odell Beckham Jr. or are the other teams in the division just that weak. Another thing to keep in mind is the Browns have not won an AFC North title since 1989. Most fans do not even know what it is like to win a title as it has been that long. Another fun fact is that only four players on the current Browns roster were alive when the Browns last won a division title. They are such a young team and it is hard to believe they will surpass the other teams in this division. The Steelers might not fall off as much as people expect them to, and the Ravens have a lot of talent.
As good as the Browns look on paper, their youth terrifies me. They could easily have struggles because of chemistry or just because there is a ton of ego on this team. I would look elsewhere in this division as there is more value on the more experienced teams.
Odds to win AFC Championship: +600
Sure, the Browns added several great players on the offensive side of the ball. However, they are still a young team and I do not see how an AFC Championship is realistic. They still must prove they can have a winning season before thinking about making a Super Bowl appearance. The Browns will be a better team than last year, but an AFC Championship is very unlikely.
It does not matter who the Browns have, they are not good enough to win the AFC, and oddsmakers are taking advantage of bettors who want to buy into the hype too easily with this line.
Odds to win Super Bowl 54: +1200
Like with the AFC Championship prop, a Super Bowl win is extremely unlikely. The NFC is loaded with great teams and the Chiefs and Patriots still stand in the way as likely Super Bowl contenders. I do not believe in any way that the Browns will be lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
Picking the Browns to win the Super Bowl is a huge risk considering they have not played in the playoffs in over a decade. It would be in your best interest to stay away from this play.
