Caleb Wilfinger
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We’ve got a pretty consequential matchup in the AFC playoff picture in Week 18 of the NFL season on Saturday. The Cincinnati Bengals are traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a showdown that could determine the final seed in the AFC playoff picture, and even the AFC North division champion. The Steelers are looking to lock up the #5 seed in the AFC with a victory, while the Bengals are hoping to sneak into the AFC playoff field with a win, and some help on Sunday.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:00 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Bengals vs Steelers predictions.
Cincinnati Bengals -2 (-115)
Over 47.5 (-112)
Russell Wilson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+104)
Parlay odds: +576
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay is that all of its components don’t need to be correlated, if you so choose. That is the plan here, as the Bengals winning this game doesn’t necessarily correlate with Russell Wilson throwing multiple touchdowns, but most likely would play out with a game script that shades to the over. Ultimately, I like the value that this adds to our SGP so let’s break down each of these legs.
Cincinnati Bengals -2 (-115)
Assuming the Ravens defeat Cleveland earlier in the day, the Steelers would not be able to win the AFC North on Saturday night. With that in mind, why would Mike Tomlin risk injuring players right before the postseason, especially since the Steelers are coming off 3 games in 11 days and their bye week was all the way in Week 9? Needless to say, Pittsburgh could probably use a break, but we’d still expect the Steelers to compete in this game. On the other side, Joe Burrow and his offense are absolutely rolling over this winning streak, averaging 32.4 points per game over their past 8 games. It’s also worth noting that the Bengals put up more points on the Steelers than any other opponent this season, so the vaunted Pittsburgh defense that has become the identity of the team under Tomlin was still no match for this explosive offense. And even if Tomlin decides to play most of his starters, what will he do if a couple of players get injured and the game isn’t going how he wants it to? Is there a world in which the Steelers play their starters until halftime and back off if they’re trailing? There are less questions with the Bengals, so let’s take Cincinnati to win and cover here.
Over 47.5 (-112)
These teams combined for 895 yards and 82 points in the first meeting, and it could have been even worse. Even more startling is that both outfits exceeded 100 yards of penalties and at one point Pittsburgh missed a field goal – what would the score have been without those gaffes? Although their defense has improved slightly over the last month, it’s still clear that the Bengals win with their offense. It’s the reason why Cincinnati is among the best teams to the Over this season (11-5), since their weekly showings feature a ton of electric offense and very little resistance when the other unit takes the field. This total is a bit reduced since this is an AFC North battle in cold weather, and the possibility that Steelers’ starters sit must be considered. On the other hand, that just means we’re getting a better number to take the over in this game.
Russell Wilson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+104)
The Steelers’ offense has been the issue in this recent losing streak, scoring just 40 points over the past 3 contests. However, they had little issue when facing Cincinnati at Paycor Stadium back in Week 13. In fact, the Steelers put up 44 points, 28 first downs and 520 total yards against the hapless Bengals defense in what was their best performance of the season. And while we can’t expect an extra replica performance from the Pittsburgh offense in this game, I do think we’re getting some value on Russell Wilson to exceed his passing touchdown prop. After all, Wilson had three touchdowns in the first meeting between these teams, and with George Pickens back in the fold, the Pittsburgh passing offense should be primed for a much-needed big game once again. Even if Pittsburgh is in a positive game scrip, this is still a good spot for Wilson to throw the ball on an anemic defense.
