Week 15 ended very, very differently for these teams. The Bengals overcame a 17-point deficit against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and won the game by 11 points. The Patriots also made a comeback of their own, but on the last play of the game before overtime, or so we thought, New England threw (literally) the Raiders the win. New England’s playoff chances are becoming increasingly slim, and this is a must-win game.
Here are our predictions and best bets for Saturday’s Bengals-Patriots showdown.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Bengals -3, Patriots +3
Total Points Over/Under: 41.5 points
Money Line Odds: Bengals -170, Patriots +145
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Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots expert picks
We have 2 NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Bengals and Patriots. Let’s take a look.
Bengals vs Patriots point spread pick: Bengals -3 (-115)
While the Bengals are looking to separate themselves further from the pack in the AFC North, the Patriots are now the desperate team looking to scratch and claw their way into the AFC playoff picture. The three-point spread indicates we’ll have a close, hard-fought battle, and while the Bengals are a solid money-line favorite, there are indications that this game could go either way. Bill Belichick is a defensive genius and he will be tasked with neutralizing one of the most dominant passing attacks in the game while also fending off one of the league’s best rushers in Joe Mixon. The defensive metrics indicate the Patriots have the capability of keeping the Bengals in check, but as we saw last week during that debacle of a finish in the game against the Raiders, this isn’t a normal Belichick team and one that has made a lot of mental mistakes this season. Do you believe in the power of Belichick to right the wrongs of Week 15 and get his team in line and in a place where they can upset the defending AFC champs?
On the Bengals side, it should be about delivering a balanced offensive attack to prevent Belichick from completely neutralizing Ja’Marr Chase and Mixon, arguably the two biggest weapons Joe Burrow has at his disposal. Zac Taylor is going to need to be creative and needs to design a game plan that keeps the opposition guessing. Cincinnati is 11-3 against the spread this season, 8-3 as a favorite, and 5-2 as a favorite on the road. If we were looking at maybe another half-point on this spread, you could lean towards the Patriots, but considering what we’ve seen from the Bengals during this six-game win streak, it’s difficult to pick against them.
Be sure to check out our full Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots predictions
Bengals vs Patriots over/under totals pick: Over 41.5 (-110)
If we were looking at a game where the weather in Foxboro would be a major factor, 41.5 points could have been an easy under to call. However, while the temperature is expected to hover in the high-20s, we are supposed to get clear skies with normal 10-15 mph winds that don’t have as much of an impact on the passing game. Therefore, we can look at this from a straight match-up standpoint. The Patriots will run hard with Rhamondre Stevenson against the Bengals, but considering they are allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, we could be looking at more throwing for Mac Jones as they look to keep pace with the high-octane offense of the Bengals. Belichick will look to shut down both Chase and Mixon, but Cincinnati has so many weapons they can turn to, like Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and even Samaje Perine, it will be tough for New England to fully contain them. Both teams have a lot to play for, so expect them to keep firing at each other throughout the day.
For the Patriots, the under is 8-6 this season which isn’t all that surprising considering how strong a defensive mind Bill Belichick possesses and how weak the Patriots’ offense has been. For the Bengals, the under is 8-5-1 for the season and 3-1 over their last four. While those statistics point us in one direction, we may want to look in the other, as the Bengals just might have too much firepower for New England to handle. Conversely, the Bengals have also allowed an average of 20.6 points per game, so if the Patriots hit that mark, this game is going over.
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and Best Bets from the rest of the Week 16 action.
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