Caleb Wilfinger
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The penultimate weekend of the 2022 NFL campaign is upon us, and the AFC Championship game should be a fun one. The Bengals are coming off a win as 6-point underdogs against the Bills, while Kansas City survived the Jacksonville Jaguars, despite Patrick Mahomes suffering a high ankle sprain in the process.
Below is our SGP for the AFC Championship, and also be sure to check out our full Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs picks on the side and total.
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Bengals ML (+106)
Under 48.5 (-114)
Isaiah Pacheco over 47.5 rushing yards (-110)
Parlay odds: +1873
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case here, as Isaiah Pacheco racking up a decent amount of rushing yards and the Bengals winning don’t exactly work well on paper with an under bet. But there is no reason why Under 48.5 can’t cash even if both the Bengals offense and Pacheco have success. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Bengals ML (+106)
This is shaping up to be the premier rivalry in the NFL, with the Bengals having knocked off the Chiefs in 3 consecutive games. With Patrick Mahomes practically playing on one leg, it’s hard not to side with Joe Burrow to do it once again. The Bengals have continually been disrespected in the betting market, despite the fact that they haven’t lost a game since all the way back in October. In fact, Cincinnati has only lost 1 game against a non-division opponent all year, and that was by just 3 points against the Cowboys way back in Week 2. Mahomes and the Chiefs can insist all they want that his ankle is fine, but I’m not convinced that he’s be anywhere near full strength in this one.
When these teams first played earlier this season, Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo held Mahomes to just 223 yards passing, and that was without the high ankle sprain he suffered a week ago. Cincinnati’s offense has been balanced and effective, with Joe Mixon and Semaje Perine sharing the workload. In their first game against the Chiefs, Mixon didn’t even play and Perine was still able to rack up 106 yards on 5 yards yards per carry. Expect another strong game from Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase and the rest of the Cincinnati offense en route to their second straight Super Bowl appearance.
Under 48.5 (-114)
This number opened above the key number of 51, before being quickly bet down to as low as 46.5. What has caused it to rise in recent days is the news that Mahomes will play and has been practicing. However, the videos from practice, press conferences, etc. haven’t been all that convincing to me that he’ll be anywhere near 100% for Sunday. Mahomes looks to be limited and Kansas City has actually scored less at home this year than on the road, with the total going under in six of the last seven games at Arrowhead. Couple that with a Bengals defense that is peaking at the right time and you have a game that screams under. While it won’t shock anyone to see both these teams scoring in the high-20s or low 30s, it’s tough to back that notion in what should be a tight game.
Isaiah Pacheco over 47.5 rushing yards (-110)
This line seems a bit low given the circumstances of what Kansas City should do on offense on Sunday. Andy Reid is no stranger to showcasing a rookie RB in playoffs, and that was true as recently as 2 years ago, when Clyde Edwards-Helaire led the team in rush attempts in the Super Bowl. Pacheco averaging 13.8 carries over the last 10 weeks and he easily cleared this number last week versus Jacksonville. In fact, he’s averaging nearly 72 rush yards per game over the last 10 contests.
The Bengals looked stout against the run last week for two main reasons, but this is a much better offense at running the ball than that of the Bills. Against the Bengals back in Week 13, Pacheco had 14 carries for 66 yards and I expect a similar dosage here. Reid will likely want to limit the amount of deep dropbacks for Mahomes and lean on Pacheco out of the backfield on early downs. With an uptick in usage expected, it’s hard not to see Pacheco going over this number.
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