Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The main event this Sunday is the showdown we’ve all been discussing: Joe Burrow vs Patrick Mahomes. The Bengals are -1.5 road favorites, largely in part due to the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. Last week against Jacksonville, Mahomes was heroic in his efforts, and Andy Reid was wise to lean on Isiah Pacheco in the run game. For the Bengals, they dominated the Bills from start to finish and Zac Taylor outcoached Sean McDermott in every phase of the game. This week will be a much tougher chess match for Taylor, and Reid will need to modify his game plan to accommodate Mahomes’ physical limitations.
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Isiah Pacheco over 47.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available at BetRivers Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This one seems obvious, but I was expecting the line to be much higher. Andy Reid is no stranger to showcasing a rookie RB in playoffs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rookie year, he led the team in rush attempts in the Super Bowl and in LeSean McCoy’s rookie year, he led the team in rush attempts in the Wild Card round. For Pacheco, he’s averaging 13.8 carries over the L10 weeks and hit this number last week versus Jacksonville. On the season, he’s averaging 51 y/g and 72 y/g over the L10.
The Bengals looked stout against the run last week for two main reasons: they played with a lead the entire time and the Bills are awful at running the football with RBs. Against the Bengals in Week 13, Pacheco had 14 carries for 66 yards. I expect Reid to want to limit the amount of 5-7 step drops for Mahomes and lean on Pacheco on early downs. This will set up 3rd and short for Mahomes and give him the best chance of catching the Bengals defense off guard. In fact, the Bengals defense ranks 25th overall on 3rd and short according to Football Outsiders. 1U
Make sure you also read Prop Holliday’s 49ers vs Eagles best player props
Tyler Boyd over 3.5 receptions (+135)
Line available at BetRivers Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Fun Fact: I am 3-1 for +2.28 units on all Tyler Boyd props this season. Boyd has hit this line in 3 straight games against the Chiefs, including last years playoffs. This is just too much value for me to pass up at +135 for a team that will be much more pass heavy than they were last week. KC is allowing 6.4 targets per game to WR3s and although slot CB L’Jarius Sneed graded out well last week according to PFF, he still allowed a team high 9 receptions on 10 targets (by far the most on the team). If this drops below plus money, you can stay away, but anything above +100 is a green light from me. 1.5U
Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available at Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Bengals offense last week in Buffalo disguised very few things. On running downs, Mixon was in the backfield and their intentions were clear; Buffalo just couldn’t stop it up front. As a result, Perine was the clear 3rd down receiving option and Mixon only ran 14 routes. Zac Taylor will need to do a better job disguising his play calling and rely more on play action passing; especially with Chris Jones getting pressure up the middle.
Mixon has hit this in 5 of his L8 and this is well below he season average of 29.7 y/g. I picked of this Chiefs linebacking core last week with Etienne over 17.5 receiving yards, but unlike Etienne, Mixon is a natural catcher of the football. He’s hit this line in 3 straight games vs the Bengals (including playoffs). I expect him to be much more involved in the passing game this week than the prior two weeks. Primarily due to the matchup and the Bengals need to pass the ball more on early downs. The Chiefs the 3rd most passing yards per game to opposing RBs. 1U
Bengals vs Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer picks
Isiah Pacheco +165
Tee Higgins +195
Trent Irwin +1000
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