Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round games get a bit murky. Cincinnati currently sits as a 5.5-point underdog on the road against the Buffalo Bills. The Bengals will likely be without RG Alex Cappa and OT Jonah Williams this Sunday, which is huge. Minus a few bumps and bruises, the Bills expect to have their full roster from the previous week. I see clear mismatches on paper for this game, which opens the door for some great Bengals vs Bills player props to target.
The Bills’ pass rush is mediocre and the worst of all the teams remaining based on pressure rate. Buffalo’s secondary is the worst position group on the team, and they do their best to mask that by limiting their blitz rate, with the 10th-lowest rate in the league. The Bengals aren’t without their own weaknesses. CB Eli Apple is a liability in coverage and Burrow & company did not look spectacular last week against Baltimore. It’s worth mentioning the Bills have not had a home playoff loss since 1996 and remain unbeaten in the postseason with Josh Allen at Highmark Stadium. Whichever team can hold the other to under 30 points should be able to win this game.
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Joe Mixon over 75.5 rushing and receiving yards (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Much is being made of the Bengals’ issues on the offensive line. They’ve struggled to protect Joe Burrow before Jonah Williams and Alex Cappa went down. Sunday will be a test for backups Jackson Carman and Cordell Volson to say the least. Head coach Zac Taylor will want to limit the number of dropbacks early on and play keep away from Josh Allen. If the Bills establish an early lead, it will be difficult to protect Burrow with Buffalo pinning their ears back against this inexperienced left side of the O-line. That is why it is important to establish the run early for Cincinnati.
Mixon has seen double-digit carries in 5 straight games to end the season and averaged 16.75 per game in last year’s postseason run. On passing downs, creating plays for Mixon to be the first read will help mitigate Buffalo’s pass rush and get the ball out of Burrow’s hands quickly.
Mixon still managed 11 carries last week against Baltimore, despite the Bengals having the ball for only 27:34 (well below their season average of 31:36). Through the air, Mixon has been as active as ever; finishing the regular season with 5+ receptions in the last 3 games. This line is well below his season average of 87.4 combined yards per game and has dipped below the standard 80.5 we’ve been seeing. It’s a buy-low spot on Mixon, who will be a big factor in this matchup. 1.5U
Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-128)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I pointed out the Bills’ lack of a pass rush and secondary as areas of weakness for Buffalo in the opener. The Bengals’ offensive line ranks 31st in the league in pass-blocking grade and is now likely to miss 2 starters. However, this is something Burrow is used to in his short career. Under pressure, he has the 3rd-highest completion percentage amongst qualified QBs and 9 touchdowns vs 3 interceptions. He can move the pocket with his legs and pick up yards on the ground when necessary. I’m not overly concerned about this “paper mismatch” that many are overhyping. Burrow will need to get the ball out of his hands quicker than usual, but I expect him to thrive in the red zone where he’s thrown 24 of his 35 touchdowns this season.
The Bills’ pass defense grades average to above average. I like to attribute that largely to their opponents: Mac Jones 2x, Zack Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Justin Fields, Ryan Tannehill and Kenny Pickett made up 50% of their schedule this season. The other half has mixed results. Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett all hit this number vs Buffalo. Burrow on the other hand hit this number in 4 straight games to close the season until he ran into the Ravens’ defense on back-to-back weeks, which is ranked 5th overall in passing touchdowns.
Joe Cool has hit this line in 11/16 (68%) of games this season and 1/2 road playoff games. In the Week 17 matchup that was cancelled, Burrow scored on his first possession to Tyler Boyd vs Buffalo. 1U
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James Cook under 41.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This one hurts. James Cook has made me a lot of money this season, but I need to do what’s right. The Bengals’ rush defense has allowed a total of 3 rushes of 20+ yards or more all season to opposing running backs. The explosive runs have been Cook’s bread and butter. They are what separates him from Singletary and attribute to a large portion of his rushing total this season. He’s hit this total in 2 of the last 4 games and the Bengals have been solid against the run all season. They rank 9th in opponent rushing yards per game, 10th in opponent carries per game and 10th in yards per attempt.
This game is shaping up to be a shootout in my eyes and Cook’s graded out poorly in pass protection, giving way to Nyheim Hines earning a role last week against Miami. Cook played his lowest snap count against the Dolphins since Week 12 (31%), but in a close game, the Bills were able to continue running the ball. I’m expecting Cook to struggle breaking the big run we’ve come accustomed to seeing lately, combined with a reduced workload. 1U
Bengals vs Bills anytime touchdown scorer best bets
Joe Mixon +120
Stefon Diggs +110
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