Matthew Lowrimore
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Best Bet – Cincinnati Bengals Over 6 Wins (-130)
Worst Bet – Cincinnati Bengals to win the Super Bowl (+12500)
2018 was a rough year for the Bengals as they once again finished below .500 under the leadership of Marvin Lewis. The front office decided to go in a different direction and brought in offensive whizkid Zac Taylor. Taylor was most recently the quarterbacks’ coach for the Los Angeles Rams in 2018, the team that made a Super Bowl appearance. He will hope to turn the Bengals into winners just like the Rams, but the question is, can the 35-year-old do it in year one?
The Bengals’ success will start and end with the play of quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton put up a career low in games started in 2018 due to a thumb injury that kept him sidelined for 5 contests. He ended the year with 2,566 yards passing, 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Bringing in a former QB coach as the head coach should hopefully do wonders for Dalton, who has played under a defensive coach his entire career.
Another player looking to have a bounce back year is A.J. Green. Green suffered an injury in Week 8 of last season which caused him to miss three games. He then was placed on the season-ending injured reserve when he re-aggravated the toe. Green failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark for just the second time in his career, but he’ll be back to make his presence known again in the league.
There is no other way to say it, but the Bengals’ defense was terrible in 2018. They allowed 28.4 points per game (30th). They allowed 413.6 yards per game (32nd), 275.9 passing yards per game (32nd), and 137.8 rushing yards per game (28th). This could have had to do with the fact that the offense couldn’t stay on the field, as well as a rash of injuries they suffered. A big turnaround by the defense will be needed if the Bengals are going to have any success.
Cincinnati Bengals Win Total: O/U 6 Wins
The oddsmakers set the win total for the Bengals right at 6, the number they ended with in 2018. This number feels low because the Bengals’ playmakers should be back healthy. The main thing that scares me is how quickly can the Bengals adjust under their new head coach? Taylor just coached under Sean McVay so surely he picked up a few things along the way and will have a solid game plan prepared each week.
One concern I have is the offensive line. The Bengals drafted Jonah Williams out of the University of Alabama with the 11th overall pick to fill the role of left tackle, but he recently underwent shoulder surgery and will likely be out for the season. That has me worried about Dalton’s protection, as Cordy Glenn will now kick over from left guard to replace him, and the Bengals don’t have many appealing options to take over at Glenn’s old spot.
The other thing is the Bengals play 5 of their first 8 games on the road. They went 2-6 on the road in 2018, and a similar result could be likely this season. That said, they should be able to win quite a few games in the second half of the season with their home-field advantage.
I cannot see the Bengals having a worse season than last year. Even under a new coach, the Bengals will be much healthier, and I see them getting to at least 7-9 or 8-8.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +475, No -700
This is an interesting prop because other than a few teams at the top, the AFC is not all that strong. You have the Patriots of course, Chiefs, Chargers, maybe the Colts and Texans, but after that it is a ton of mediocrity. Even the new look Browns, who have all the expectations in the world, have not even played a real game together, so we do not know how good they really are. The Steelers will likely take a step back, which gives the Bengals a chance under their new boss to steal a Wild Card spot if they can stay healthy.
I would not be running to the window to bet this prop, but I could never recommend laying that much juice on the “No”. Therefore, if you are going to bet this prop, I would lean towards the “Yes” because of the value and the state of the AFC.
Odds to win AFC North: +1600
Similar story here with the Bengals in their own division. We do not know how good the Browns will be and the Steelers could easily have a down year after losing Antonio Brown from last year’s team. As for the Ravens, they could easily be in the conversation with a strong defense and a guy like Lamar Jackson making plays. This could come down to how healthy the Bengals can stay and whether they can actually win some games against their division rivals. As much as people think the Browns are going to roll over the rest of the AFC North, the Bengals could be in the mix if they can start the season off on the right foot.
I would stay away from this prop because I really do not see the Bengals walking away with an AFC North title in year one under Taylor. However, with the uncertainty of the other teams in the division, there is value here if you’re itching to go with a long-shot.
Odds to win AFC Championship: +6600
As long as Tom Brady and the Patriots are running over the AFC, there is absolutely no reason to believe the Bengals will advance this far. Just making the playoffs would be an accomplishment.
No chance that the Bengals win the AFC Championship.
Odds to win Super Bowl 54: +12500
Same thing here. The Bengals have not even won a playoff game in a very long time. Why should anyone believe they can not only make it to the biggest game of the year but also lift the Lombardi Trophy? With Dalton under center, this is just lighting money on fire.
The Bengals will not be playing in Super Bowl 54
