Andrew Wilsher
Super Bowl 59 and Chiefs vs Eagles is almost upon us, and as always, there is an absolute avalanche of betting markets and options available to choose from. With things like the coin toss, Gatorade shower, national anthem and halftime show to choose from, there’s a way to enhance your excitement of the Super Bowl in nearly every facet of the game. That even extends to the opening kickoff. Much like the coin toss and the length of the national anthem, betting on whether or not the opening kickoff will be a touchback gives bettors the opportunity to secure an early win on their Super Bowl wagers if picking correctly. So, yes or no — will the Super Bowl opening kickoff result in a touchback? And will there be a touchback in the game? Let’s break it all down.
Find out all of our NFL picks in our Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl 59 predictions
Super Bowl Opening Kickoff to be a Touchback Odds
These are the current Super Bowl odds on the opening kickoff to be a touchback or fair catch, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook (1st) and Bet365 (2nd):
- Yes: -245 / -270 (last year -330)
- No: +186 / +210 (last year +235)
As we can see, yes there will be a touchback is the current heavy favorite. The odds for this happening have become very short in recent years following tweaks to the kickoff rules in the NFL, especially now with touchbacks resulting in the ball being placed at the 30-yard line. The last time we didn’t see a Super Bowl opening kickoff be a touchback was in Chiefs vs Buccaneers in 2021.
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Super Bowl Kickoff best bet: Yes – Opening Kickoff to result in a touchback or fair catch (-245)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
In the 2024 NFL season, 64.3% of all kickoffs were touchbacks. This is down from the 73% we saw in 2023, but it is still the 2nd-highest touchback rate since the year 2000. As mentioned above, it’s understandable why this number is so high. After all, there is a much greater risk involved in returning a kickoff when you factor in things like fumbles, and it is already hard enough for the returner to even get to the 30-yard line. We’ve seen the returner stopped short plenty of times, and even when it does look like they’ve broken out on an impressive run, they’ve often only earned a handful more yards than they would’ve done if they just took a knee in the end zone.
I used to be a big supporter of the opening kickoff not being a touchback, especially when factoring in what Pat McAfee has noted in the past of that football being the hardest a kicker will face due to it only being used once and then going in the Hall of Fame. However, things have swung too heavily in favor of the kickoff being a touchback now and there is little reason for the returner to take the risk of bringing the ball out. Further, both Jake Elliott and Harrison Butker ranked in the top 10 this season in kickoff touchback percentage. There’s a lot of juice in this play but it feels like the right one.
Don’t miss our Super Bowl 59 Same Game Parlay picks at +1449 odds, as well as our best Chiefs player prop bets and our Eagles player prop picks
Super Bowl Touchback prediction: Yes – Will any punt result in a touchback? (+130)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
FanDuel also has a market available posing the question of whether any punt will result in a touchback, and getting plus-money odds on there to be a touchback looks enticing. Firstly, it should be pointed out that this market does somewhat depend on how well the offenses are performing. If they’re hot then we could see very few punts which lowers our chances of cashing this bet. The Chiefs and Eagles punted only twice each in their respective Conference Championship games.
However, what is interesting about this is that the 2 punters going head-to-head will be Matt Araiza of the Chiefs and Braden Mann of the Eagles — the 2 men who happen to have the highest punting touchback percentage in the NFL. Araiza sees a touchback on 14.5% of his punts while Mann comes in at 13%. While each offense has been hot, they also sport plenty of fantastic pieces on defense and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one turn into a bit of a defensive battle, at least in the early going. If we can see a few 3-and-outs early on and the punters entering the fray then this bet has a great chance of cashing. I like the value with this one.
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